India has countered Chinese aggression in Galwan; the new American president will redefine US-China relations as well
India has charted out a new path for a self-reliant country during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It started with acute strategic conflicts with China in Galwan Valley. The aggressive posturing of India’s neighbour has forced it to adopt a different chart.
Moving away from the China-led economic order in Asia to a self-reliant India is a bold move.
The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ in July. It was an attempt to merge domestic production and consumption with global supply chains, without being self-contained or being closed to the world.
And it serves a strategic meaning — to enhance its economic footprints in the Indo-Pacific region by strengthening economic relations with countries that are critical to the rules-based global order.
China has shown its true intent to the world. It is a threat to the world peace. The Indian foreign minister and the National Security Agency visited different countries of Indo-Pacific to connect them with India’s new vision of the region at the backdrop of Chinese aggression.
At the same time, a change of politics in the United States will have a huge impact on the world politics.
Joe Biden is going to be the next American President. The relations between the US and China will be redefined. The rift between the two may synchronise, but heat may remain to drive their priorities. The cold war balance of power theory was also constructed on the nuclear deterrence.
Now, the threat perception of the world has shifted from nuclear to climate change. Joe Biden has made it clear that America will come back to the Paris climate club that was abandoned by Trump.
This is more alarming and impending. The world does not need wider conflicts between the two powers, merely inaction and lack of proactive climatic initiatives will spell a doom. In such a scenario, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) could be very effective in changing the world politics from geo-political rumblings to green politics.
It will create a win-win situation for everyone except China, whose aggressive posturing in the South China Sea is intimidating Taiwan and Hong Kong. Chinese PLA is trying to create war-like conditions in eastern Ladakh.
China has gained the status of a super power through its economic development and its expansion to each and every corner of the world. The economic gust developed the military might. The military might generated biting strategic teeth. China became a threat to the world peace. None of the super powers of earlier time dug out the historical mapping of 15th and 16th centuries to rein the world.
But China is doing it. Chinese cartography is imbedded with imperial thought. The befitting respond to Chinese aggression, therefore, was to cut its economic fang. The QUAD could anchor the same more effectively. It is not merely a group of four countries (US, Australia, Japan and India), but also combines the many countries situated on the sea lane of Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, most of these countries are badly affected by Chinese aggression. Japan is worried about its activities in East China Sea; Australia finds Chinese claims against international norms and has been facing punitive trade measures after Australia called for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19; and the US sees that the littoral countries in the SCS are being bullied by China.
To slow down the expanding Chinese feet in the Indo-Pacific is more important. But that needs to be sketched by the QUAD meeting. One way is to focus on the green energy project and adopt the Paris mandate.
China is luring the poorer countries through its fossil-fuels projects. China is also facilitating the expansion of fossil fuel use in countries under the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), which may be counterproductive to addressing climate change.
In 25 of the 65 countries under the BRI initiative, China is reportedly involved in 240 coal-fired power projects of about 250 gigawatt capacities.
It is important to note here that the key driver of the decision to use coal-based power by the relatively poorer BRI countries such as Bangladesh, Mongolia and Vietnam. This highlights the critical question of economic inequality between countries and the consequent need for financial assistance from richer to poorer countries to address climate change.
Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) echoed Article 9 of the Paris Agreement by calling for financial assistance to poor countries to address climate change.
Evidence shows that climate finance grants to poor countries are far lower than the $100 billion promised by developed countries. The US has a lot of resources to focus on green energy in the Indo-Pacific. This switchover will create a better alternative for many members of OBR that found them trapped in the Chinese net.
India could be the best suited to carry forward the green belt in the Indo-Pacific. It has already announced ‘One Sun, One World and One Grid’. India does not have the infrastructure or adequate technology to move forward single-handedly.
Japan and many European countries, which are alliance partners of the US, can come forward and support the green projects in Asia. It will commensurate with India’s self-reliant initiative which was taken during the Chinese aggression.
Japan too has portrayed itself as India’s natural partner in North East India by investing in a host of projects including water supply project in Guwahati, the road network in Assam-Meghalaya, forest management and agriculture and developmental projects across the region.
The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is already partnering with the Indian government in the North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project and others such as Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet-train project, the Metro Rail projects in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata and Ahmedabad; and the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor from National Capital Region to Mumbai.
The ASEAN countries could be a lynchpin of this new economic venture. Japan and South Korea are in tune with India. China is also mapping out its own route to disrupt Indian attempt.
The trade volume of each ASEAN countries is dictated by China. Therefore, none could afford alone. A joint venture could be the only way out. The joint venture needs a leadership.
India is willing to lead provided the strategic space is given by the US and a handful of European countries. If the US leadership changes its track, the Indo-Pacific venture could prove to be a failure in taming the dragon.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.