Cyclone Montha could cause coastal and riverine flooding in Andhra and Yanam

Cyclone Montha (pronounced Mon-Tha) is to make landfall between 5:30 pm and 11:30 pm on October 28 as a severe cyclonic storm, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest tropical weather outlook. The landfall could be between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam close to Kakinada along the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

The storm is carrying wind speeds of 90-100 km/hr with wind gusts of 110 km/hr which makes it a severe cyclone. The IMD highlighted that the associated storm surge, which is the increase in the tidal level of the sea along the coastline, could be one metre above the astronomical tidal level along the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, according to IMD.

Storm surge is brought about by the energy of the cyclonic winds acting on the surface water of the sea. Such a storm surge could inundate low lying areas along the coast, bringing in saline water inland that could impact the health of the soil. This could impact agricultural productivity in the long term, especially if the storm surge occurs along a river mouth.

In the case of Kakinada, where the landfall is expected, the mouth of the river Gouthami could get such saline water intrusion because of the storm surge from Cyclone Montha. The region is also home to the Coringa wildlife sanctuary famous for its mangroves and fauna species such as the fishing cat and jackals.

The animals could get affected by the winds and storm surge of the cyclone while mangroves could act as a protective barrier. There is also Hope Island off the coast of Kakinada which is known as a nesting site for Olive Ridley turtles and is in the direct path of Cyclone Montha. The season for the nesting of this vulnerable turtle species begins in November.

At 11:30 pm on October 28, Cyclone Montha was located around 120 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam and 200 km south-southeast of Kakinada. IMD is monitoring the storm with the help of doppler weather radars at Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam along with coastal observatories, automatic weather stations, ships and buoys and satellites.

The strongest winds of Cyclone Montha (90 to 100 km/hr) could impact the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from the evening of October 28 to the noon of October 29. During the same period, the wind speeds along the Odisha coast could be around 60-70 km/hr. Along the Tamil Nadu coast, the wind speeds could be in the range of 45-55 km/hr.

IMD has put out an alert for major damage to thatched houses and kutcha roads. The weather agency has also highlighted the damage that could be caused to pucca roads and power lines. IMD predicted damage to standing crops and orchards, especially paddy, banana and papaya due to inundation and winds. They also pointed out the “possibility of coastal flooding and coastal erosion is also very likely over coastal districts of north Andhra Pradesh & Yanam” and “localized Landslides/Mudslides. It may lead to riverine flooding in some river catchments.”