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The rare land-based deep depression over Gujarat that has resulted in torrents of rain and flooding across the state is likely to emerge into the Arabian Sea by the morning of August 29 and intensify marginally while moving away from the coast on August 30, according to the latest update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The IMD has not specified if the system would intensify into a tropical cyclone or not. The storm has already led to the deaths of 15 people across the state, with many cities like Vadodara facing unprecedented flooding.
“It is likely to move slowly west-southwestwards across Saurashtra & Kachchh region and reach Saurashtra & Kachchh and adjoining areas of Pakistan coasts by morning of 29th August,” IMD said in its press release on August 28.
“It is likely to continue to move west-southwestwards and emerge into northeast Arabian Sea off Kachchh and adjoining Saurashtra & Pakistan coasts by morning of 30th August. While moving west-southwestwards over northeast Arabian Sea away from the Indian coast, there is a possibility of its temporary and marginal intensification over northeast Arabian Sea on 30th August,” the weather agency added.
This is when the weather analysis and visualisation platform Windy.com shows the storm already having cyclonic wind speeds over Gujarat. If that is the case, this would be the first land-based tropical cyclone since 2008 and only the 15th land cyclone since 1891, according to data from the IMD, analysed by Down To Earth (DTE). Before 2008, the last such land cyclone had occurred in 1976.
Around 5 pm on August 28, 2024, the Windy platform shows wind speeds as high as 96 km/hr over the Saurashtra region when it analyses and visualises data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
With data from the United States Global Forecasting System (GFS), Windy shows wind speeds as high as 84 km/hr over the Saurashtra region.
IMD classifies a storm as a tropical cyclone if it has wind speeds in the range of 62-88 km/hr and as a ‘severe cyclone’, when it has wind speeds of 89-117 km/hr.
Both ECMWF and GFS data on Windy show the system maintaining its intensity while over the Arabian Sea and moving in the direction of Oman.
The intensification of a depression into a tropical cyclone requires heat and copious amounts of moisture which is usually available only in the sea. This is why the intensification of the current system is a highly unique event and shows that enough moisture was available in its path for gaining winds.
DTE had earlier reported that moisture from the already saturated soils in the systems path and from the Arabian Sea may be responsible for the extended sustenance and intensification of the storm system.
Whether officially classified as a cyclone or not, the storm has wreaked havoc on Gujarat as it has traversed the state at a slow pace and dumped huge amounts of rain.
Khambalia in Devbhumi Dwarka district reported a whopping 430 mm of rainfall between 8:30 am on August 27 and 8:30 am on August 28, as per data from the IMD. Eleven other meteorological stations in Saurashtra have received absolute rainfall in excess of 200 mm in the period.
IMD has placed the entire state of Gujarat on red alert regarding the anticipated rains for August 29. For August 30, it has reduced the alert level to orange.