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More than 62,700 heat-related deaths recorded across Europe in 2024
Italy consistently reported the highest toll over the past three summers
Mortality rates rose sharply in south-eastern Europe, especially Greece and Bulgaria
Women and people aged over 75 bore the brunt of the impacts
Researchers call for new continent-wide heat-health early warning systems
The scorching summers of 2022-24 may have resulted in more than 180,000 deaths across Europe, according to new research published in Nature Medicine.
The year 2024, the hottest on record and the first in which the global mean surface temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, saw over 62,700 heat-related deaths across the continent — a 23 per cent increase compared with 2023.
Europe is warming at twice the global average, making it the fastest-warming continent. “Within Europe, the Mediterranean basin and south-eastern regions are emerging as major climate change hotspots, facing the greatest health impacts and with a substantial rise in heat-related mortality projected during the 21st century,” lead researcher Tomáš Janoš said in a statement. Janoš works with ISGlobal in Barcelona, Spain and RECETOX, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University in Brno, Czech Republic.
Janoš and colleagues used daily regional temperature data and mortality records from 2015-19 to fit epidemiological models, then combined these with daily temperature observations, forecasts and weekly mortality series for 2022-24 to calculate heat-related mortality in the three recent summers.
Between June 1 and September 30, 2024, Europe recorded an estimated 62,775 heat-related deaths. Fifteen of the 32 countries analysed experienced their highest heat-related mortality burden during this period.
By comparison, the death toll in 2023 stood at 50,798, while in 2022 it was 67,873. Although 2024 surpassed 2022 as the hottest summer on record by 0.2°C, mortality in 2022 was 8.1 per cent higher. Researchers attributed this to the distribution of hot temperatures across the region.
“During the summer 2022, the hottest temperatures intersected with regions with very high vulnerability to heat in countries with large populations — for example, Spain, Italy and France — causing more deaths than in 2024,” Janoš told Down To Earth.
Italy recorded the highest number of heat-related deaths for all three summers: 18,801 in 2022, 13,790 in 2023 and 19,038 in 2024. Spain and Germany followed in second and third place, respectively.
Several countries, including Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Austria, Czechia, Cyprus and Montenegro, saw mortality rise steadily through 2022-24. “The main reason is rising temperatures. These countries experienced a very hot summer in 2024 compared with the previous two years,” Janoš explained.
The highest mortality rates, expressed as summer deaths per million people, were concentrated in south-eastern Europe, with 574 in Greece, 530 in Bulgaria, 379 in Serbia and 326 in Croatia.
The impacts from 2022-24 were particularly pronounced among women and older adults. The study estimated that women accounted for the majority of heat-related deaths in summer of 2024. Among people over 75, the mortality rate was 323 per cent higher than in all other age groups combined.
There are several potential factors behind these differences, which may vary between countries, Janoš said. “The most important factor is age distribution — women tend to live longer than men and the elderly are especially vulnerable to effects of heat. Physiological differences and sociocultural factors may also play a role.”
The study calls for further strengthening of the existing adaptation strategies, including the development and implementation of a new generation of continental-wide, impact-based heat-health early warning systems.
