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A new flagship analysis by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) warns that the world is making progress on methane reduction — but far too slowly to meet the 2030 Global Methane Pledge (GMP).
The Global Methane Status Report (GMSR) 2025, launched on November 17 on the sidelines of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, offers the most comprehensive assessment yet of global methane trajectories, policy action, and mitigation potential, revealing a critical five-year window to accelerate action.
This follows UNEP’s An Eye on Methane 2025 report, released on October 22, which drew on advanced satellite data to show that although the world is detecting methane leaks at unprecedented levels, nearly 90 per cent still go unaddressed, putting the 2030 methane-reduction goal at risk. The report also found that real-world measurements now cover one-third of oil and gas methane emissions, with OGMP 2.0 tracking 42 per cent of global output.
Methane, a potent greenhouse gas responsible for nearly a third of current warming, reached approximately 352 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020. Under current legislation, the first official status report projects emissions will continue rising to 369 Mt by 2030, fueled primarily by growth in agriculture and waste generation. This would push the world further from its agreed goal of cutting methane emissions at least 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030, a cornerstone of global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach.
Yet UNEP’s assessment also brings cautiously positive news: the rate of increase has slowed compared to earlier forecasts. New waste regulations in Europe and North America, improved methane governance in key emitting economies, and cooling demand in global gas markets between 2020 and 2024 have collectively lowered projected 2030 emissions compared to estimates made when the GMP launched.
The report highlights “unparalleled global attention and action” on methane since 2021. As of June 2025, 65 per cent of countries that are Parties to the Paris Agreement now include methane-specific measures in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — up from just 92 countries before 2020. This represents a 38 per cent increase in national ambition in under five years.
If these NDCs and national Methane Action Plans (MAPs) are fully implemented, global methane emissions would peak this decade and decline by 8 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030. According to UNEP, this would mark the “largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions ever recorded.”
But even that level of progress is insufficient to meet the 2030 target. UNEP stresses that achieving the GMP goal requires the full deployment of technically feasible measures across all major emitting sectors — energy, agriculture, and waste. Such action could reduce 2030 emissions by 32 per cent compared with 2020, enough to achieve the GMP commitment and deliver outsized climate and health gains.
“This report is a crucial assessment of our progress and a key indicator of the work that’s required to meet the Global Methane Pledge goal,” said Julie Dabrusin, Canada’s minister of environment and climate change and co-convener of the GMP. “In just four years, we have made improvements, but we must continue to drive faster, deeper methane cuts. Every tonne reduced brings us closer to cleaner air, more resilient communities, and a thriving global economy.”
UNEP’s analysis underscores that more than 72 per cent of total global 2030 methane reduction potential lies in the energy sector, where many solutions deliver near-immediate results at low or even negative cost. Proven measures include leak detection and repair (LDAR), venting and flaring controls, upgrading distribution networks, and capturing methane from oil, gas, and coal operations.
Despite this, major gaps persist. Methane regulations in the oil and gas sector have expanded rapidly since 2021 — including the European Union’s landmark methane import standard — yet enforcement and data transparency remain weak in several regions. Meanwhile, the coal sector continues to lag significantly, even though technologies such as ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidation and pre-mine degasification are widely available and cost-effective.
“The Global Methane Pledge has transformed ambition into tangible progress,” Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for energy and housing, said at the launch of the report. “Across sectors and continents, countries and companies are proving that methane reductions are achievable — and deliver cleaner air, stronger economies, and a safer climate. Our task now is to scale these solutions rapidly, working together to keep 1.5°C within reach and secure a healthier future for our people and our planet.”
UNEP estimates that implementing all technically feasible energy-sector measures would cost roughly $98 billion per year — just 2-4 per cent of the 2023 income of the global fossil fuel sector. Benefits far exceed costs, with potential climate, crop, and health gains valued at more than $330 billion annually by 2030.
Emissions of methane, the second-largest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide, from waste are projected to grow 13 per cent by 2030 and 56 per cent by 2050 under current policies, driven by population and economic growth. UNEP finds that low-efficiency waste management systems, especially in rapidly urbanising regions, pose a major challenge but also a major opportunity.
Key solutions include:
· Capturing landfill gas
· Diverting organic waste to composting or anaerobic digestion
· Enforcing operational standards at disposal sites
· Introducing mandatory source separation of food waste
· Promoting household and municipal-level composting
Implementing waste-sector measures before 2030 could reduce emissions by 13 Mt annually by the end of the decade, increasing to 21 Mt by 2040 as legacy waste begins to decompose more slowly. Importantly, many of these interventions generate net savings through energy production and reduced landfill costs.
Agriculture accounts for 42 per cent of global methane emissions, primarily from livestock digestion (enteric fermentation), rice cultivation, and manure management. These emissions are projected to rise 8 per cent by 2030 and 17 per cent by 2050 as food demand increases.
UNEP identifies 24 Mt of methane reduction potential by 2030 through measures such as feed additives, improved livestock breeding, water management in rice cultivation, and bans on agricultural waste burning. Yet policy uptake remains limited. Enteric methane — the largest single source — remains deeply under-regulated, with few countries deploying advanced feed or breeding strategies at scale.
A central message of the report is the need for transparent, high-quality methane data. While satellite monitoring has improved rapidly, UNEP warns that significant underreporting persists, especially in the fossil fuel sector. Strengthening monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) will be critical for accountability and for directing mitigation resources where they deliver the greatest impact.
“Reducing methane emissions is one of the most immediate and effective steps we can take to slow the climate crisis while protecting human health,” said Inger Andersen, under-secretary-general of the United Nations and executive director of UNEP. “Reducing methane also reduces crop losses, essential for both agriculture productivity and food security. UNEP is committed to helping countries turn ambition into action to ensure the solutions in this report deliver real benefits for people and the planet.”
Methane-focused finance is rising — with tracked funding reaching $13.7 billion annually in 2021–22 — but remains far below what is needed. UNEP calculates that fully implementing technical measures consistent with the GMP will require $127 billion per year by 2030. However, this represents just 6 per cent of global climate finance and a fraction of fossil fuel revenues and agricultural subsidies.
The report calls for:
• Greater policy certainty to attract private capital
• Public and philanthropic finance to support project preparation
• Support for developing countries to strengthen institutions and technical capacity
• Integration of methane into broader climate, agriculture, and energy investment plans
UNEP concludes that with five years left to 2030, the world has both the tools and the knowledge required — but insufficient time for delay. What is needed now, it argues, is a coordinated global push to accelerate implementation, backed by rigorous data and targeted finance.
“The choices made in this decade will determine whether the world seizes this opportunity,” the report notes, “unlocking cleaner air, stronger economies, and a safer climate for generations.”