Heat deaths among elderly grew 85% since the 90s: UN Frontier report

A new United Nations report has sounded the alarm on the rapidly growing threat that extreme heat poses to the world’s ageing population. Heat-related deaths among people aged 65 and above have surged by an estimated 85 per cent since the 1990s, it showed. If global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius (°C), these deaths are projected to soar by a staggering 370 per cent by 2050.

The UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Frontier report, titled The Weight of Time, was released on July 10, 2025. It highlighted the mounting vulnerability of older adults to extreme weather events, particularly in densely populated cities and low- to middle-income countries. 

According to projections of heat stress on humans, combining air temperature with relative humidity, the exposure to dangerous heat levels will likely double for people living in the tropics and be 3-10 times the current value for some living in the mid-latitudes. 

In India, the impact was already being felt. Between 1986-2005 and 2013-2022, older adults aged 65 years and above experienced 2.1-4 additional heatwave days per person per year. The elderly are especially at risk during such periods due to a reduced ability to regulate body temperature, with extreme heat contributing to increased rates of illness and death among this age group.

Older people are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, the report stated, highlighting how with age, the human body becomes less effective at regulating internal body temperature.

Acute and prolonged exposures to intense heat and cold puts a significant strain on the heart, increasing the risk of illnesses and death from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory conditions, such as stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, asthma and pneumonia. 

As cities continue to expand — with the global urban population expected to rise from 57 per cent in 2015 to 68 per cent by 2050 — the share of older people living in urban areas was also growing. In 2015, 58 per cent of people aged 60 and older resided in cities, and that number was steadily climbing, presenting unique challenges for elderly population during extreme heat events and other climate-related disasters.  

“Many older people seek urban living to access better healthcare facilities, vital social activities, and dependable public transit, among other benefits. A rising number of cities will therefore soon face the new reality of increasingly ageing urban dwellers,” the report pointed out. 
It recommended transforming cities into age-friendly, pollution-free, resilient, accessible spaces with expansive vegetation through better urban planning. 

“Investing in weather stations to monitor extreme heat is critical to protect lives. Community-based disaster risk management and access to information are key approaches to help aging people adapt successfully to climate change,” it said. 

Ageing in place 

The report talked about the ’15-minute city approach’ strategy as a solution to focus on local neighbourhoods and accessibility. Through this, older people can be provided with opportunities to continue living in their community with some independence while staying active in their own homes, environments and social networks.

“This approach supports locating everyday destinations — home, workplace, schools, shops and public green spaces — within a fifteen-minute walk or cycle, a feature that can be quite appealing to older people with mobility concerns. Such a compact living style reduces car dependency and lowers emissions of carbon and air pollutants from traffic, improving air quality.  In an ageing society, the most liveable environment for ageing in place is to make all services available within a short-distance and familiar neighbourhood,” it recommended. 

Earlier this year, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a new resolution to develop an “international legally binding instrument on the human rights of older persons”, a possible path to add safety to those most exposed to climate change. 

The UNEP Frontiers report is a series of reports under its Foresights Trajectory initiative, which identifies and highlights emerging issues of global environmental concern. The Weight of Time is the 7th edition in the series.