COP31’s proposed “35-by-35” electrification goal aims to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity from about 23% today to 35% by 2035.
The International Energy Agency says the target is economically within reach, with electrification already cost-effective for about 33% of global energy use at current costs and prices.
But developing countries face weaker grids, financially stressed utilities, higher borrowing costs and limited capacity to invest in new technologies and equipment.
The authors argue that the global electrification target must be backed by predictable finance and infrastructure support, especially for Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is set to be held in Antalya, Turkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026. The Turkish presidency has made global electrification one of its three headline goals, alongside waste reduction and climate-resilient buildings.
It has proposed a collective target to increase the share of final energy demand met by electricity to 35 per cent by 2035. Today, that share is around 23 per cent. Reaching 35 per cent would require the share to rise by about 1.2 percentage points a year, roughly four times the pace achieved since 2010.
A COP31 “35-by-35” Global Electrification Pledge was announced this month. In parallel, a special report released this week by the International Energy Agency (IEA), prepared for the COP31 presidency, found that the goal is within economic reach as technology becomes more affordable. At 2026 costs and prices, the report said it is already cost-effective to raise electricity’s share of global energy use to about 33 per cent.
However, the ability to deliver electrification is uneven across countries. Many developing countries, where electricity demand is expected to grow fastest, have weaker grids, financially constrained utilities, limited access to affordable capital and less capacity to invest in new technologies and equipment.
The case for electrification
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies widespread electrification, including energy end uses, as one of the defining features of net-zero energy systems.
To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C), the temperature goal set under the Paris Agreement, the IPCC says modelled pathways would see electricity supplying 48-58 per cent of final energy consumption by 2050.
Electrification can also be a critical strategy for cutting end-use emissions. The IEA estimates that these emissions could fall by 40 per cent by 2035 under a High Electrification Scenario, in which the COP31 goal of 35 per cent electrification is met.
Around 730 million people still lack access to electricity, limiting their ability to meet basic energy needs and constraining economic development. The IEA has described the world as entering an “age of electricity”, with electricity demand growing much faster than overall energy demand. Expanding access to reliable and affordable electricity is therefore essential for both global electrification and development.
Buildings are currently the most electrified sector, with electricity meeting nearly 40 per cent of their energy needs. Industry follows at a little under 30 per cent. Transport lags far behind at about 2 per cent, as electric vehicles remain a limited share of the global vehicle fleet and aviation and shipping remain difficult to electrify. (See graph below)
Consistent with the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) 1.5°C scenario, the IEA estimates that electrification will need to reach 55 per cent of total final energy consumption in buildings by 2035, about 39 per cent in industry and 13 per cent in transport. IRENA projects these shares will increase further by 2050, reaching 75 per cent in buildings, 40 per cent in industry and 45 per cent in transport.
Transport would see the steepest relative rise. The IEA argues that half of oil-based transport could be electrified today on the basis of cost competitiveness. In buildings, most of the gains would come from space and water heating. In industry, the largest gains are expected from electrifying low- and medium-temperature heat in sectors such as textiles, food processing, pulp and paper, and some chemicals.
Global averages, however, can mask very different national priorities. Most of the world’s space-heating demand, and three out of every four cars on the road, are in advanced economies and China, where heat pumps and electric cars are already cost-effective.
For developing countries, the opportunities may lie elsewhere. They could include electric two- and three-wheelers, clean cooking, irrigation and heat electrification for ‘light’ industries.
Cost-effectiveness alone, however, will not guarantee equitable electrification gains.
Reliable infrastructure, solvent institutions, affordable finance, accessibility and the ability to manufacture equipment domestically are all foundations on which electrification depends. These are often weakest in the countries where future energy demand is expected to grow the most.
On the path to 35 per cent electrification, electricity demand will grow by about 1,400 terawatt-hours a year, while grids will need to expand 40 per cent faster than they have in the past, according to the IEA report.
But grids have struggled to keep pace with power generation. More than 2,500 gigawatts of renewable, storage and large-load projects are stalled in grid-connection queues around the world. In the United States, the average project that came online in 2023 had waited about five years for a connection, compared with three years in 2015.
Equipment is another bottleneck. Delivery times for critical equipment have lengthened, while transformer costs have risen sharply. In the United States, transformer costs have increased by about 80 per cent over the past five years.
The IEA estimates that about three-quarters of utilities in sub-Saharan Africa and nearly half in developing Asia are in poor financial health. Money spent on alternatives, such as back-up generators, runs into billions of dollars and can cost three to five times as much as grid power.
In India, rural electricity supply has improved substantially over the past decade, but distribution companies continue to face outstanding debts and accumulated losses running into trillions of rupees.
The IEA estimates that annual investment in end-use electrification must roughly triple, from about $320 billion to around $1 trillion by 2035. Much of this will need to come from households, small businesses and public bodies. IRENA estimates that, to accommodate rapid electrification, average annual global investment in grids must rise from $0.5 trillion in 2025 to about $1 trillion each year between 2026 and 2035.
In developing countries, the high cost of borrowing compounds the investment challenge.
The cost of capital for clean energy projects has been shown to be two to three times higher in emerging economies than in advanced economies and China. As a result, financing can make up about half the cost of a solar plant, compared with 25-30 per cent in richer markets.
In the lead up to COP31, the electrification agenda has gathered much needed momentum, and it must be embraced by governments as a low-hanging fruit on the pathway to transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has also unsettled energy markets and underlined the volatility of relying on imported fossil fuels and their derivatives. Electrified economies consume less oil, gas and coal, often imported at significant cost. China’s declining oil demand, driven partly by the rise of electric mobility, is an instructive example.
For developing countries, however, the value of a new global electrification goal will depend on whether it comes with support for the foundations electrification requires. The countries with the fastest-growing electricity demand — across much of Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia — are also among those with the weakest grids, most financially distressed utilities and highest cost of capital for clean energy.
A goal that is “affordable” in aggregate can still be out of reach for much of the world’s population unless the finance architecture and additional support needed are addressed at the same time.
Falling costs of renewable energy globally mean very little to distressed electricity distribution companies in the African or Asian continents. Pairing the 35 per cent ambition goal with a concrete and predictable finance and infrastructure package considering the specific sectoral needs and priorities of developing countries, be it affordable capital for grid upgrades, targeted interventions for clean cooking and two-and-three-wheeler mobility, or comprehensive programmes for small-scale industry to electrify, will be key.
A global target that expects disproportionate delivery from the Global South, while leaving enabling conditions to be resolved later, is neither just nor achievable.