Uncharacteristic cold in East, Central and South India; possible rare extreme cold blast for North
Extreme cold conditions, uncharacteristic for many regions of east, central and south India, have gripped the country in the first week of 2026. For some of the regions the conditions have continued from December 2025. The cold could turn more severe in the following weeks due to the possibility of a rare southward cold blast from the Arctic region.
On January 12, 2026, many places in the plains of northwest India recorded subzero temperatures. The outskirts of Gurgaon recorded close to -1°C. Fatehpur Shekawati in Rajasthan recorded a low of -3.5°C in the early morning hours of January 11. Many other places have recorded minimum temperatures close to zero in the past couple of days. Such subzero or close to zero temperatures are not very common for the plains of northwest India, neither are they extremely unusual.
In the east, centre and south of the country much colder than normal temperatures are prevalent since December 2025, which is not normal. “Winter 2025–26 in India witnessed cold-like conditions, marked by persistently below-normal min temp across North, Central and east India,” wrote Debashish Jena, research scholar in agro-meteorology at Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture and Technology in Uttarakhand on social media platform X.
In many cities of Tamil Nadu, the difference between maximum temperatures recorded on January 11 and minimum temperatures recorded on January 12 were only 1-2°C. “Hardly any difference between night and day temp. It was special day in Chennai and other cities in Tamil Nadu. Even in hill stations the trend was same,” wrote independent weather analyst Tamil Nadu Weatherman on X.
“Note Sunday the day temp was 24 C while the night temp minimum recorded today morning was 21.7 C. Hardly 1 to 2 C difference between night and day temperature is a very rare thing. I have not seen people wear sweater in daytime in Chennai,” he added.
“The anomaly was driven by La Niña–induced strengthening of the Walker and Hadley circulations, intensification and southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet, frequent western disturbances, enhanced strong cold air advection from higher latitudes, and post-disturbance clear-sky radiative cooling leading to prolonged cold nights and cold wave conditions,” wrote Jena.
La Niña is the cooler than normal phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and generally brings colder than normal winters for India. The ENSO is an ocean-atmosphere coupled phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean interact with the atmosphere through what are known as the Walker Circulation and the Hadley Circulation that carry the ENSO disruptions around the world.
The lower part of the Walker Circulation flows east to west over the tropical regions of the planet close to the surface and the upper part flows west to east over higher altitudes. The rising air in the west and the sinking air in the east form the loop that carries weather conditions across these regions. The Hadley Circulation forms loops from the equator towards higher or lower latitudes. The air rises from the equator and sinks near the 30°N and 30°S latitudes carrying tropical weather northwards and southwards.
The early part of the winter season, despite the La Niña and occurrence of western disturbances was unusually dry and warm for north and northwest India. There has also not been much snowfall in the mountains or rainfall in the plains during the winter season. The deficit in rainfall for northwest India in December 2025 was 84.8 per cent, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
In fact, the month of December was without much rain for the entire country. The overall rainfall deficit for India was 68.9 per cent. East and northeast India received 95.2 per cent less rains than normal in December and the deficit in rainfall for central India was 99 per cent. The southern peninsula, some parts of which receive rainfall during the Northeast Monsoon season, also suffered from a deficit of 37.3 per cent.
In the next few weeks, the atmosphere may turn freakishly cold for northwest India, if a forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) comes true. “Need to keep eye on the extreme intensity of the Siberian high pressure system focusing a historic cold "polar vortex" extension into Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan in the 8–10-day time frame,” wrote meteorologist Ryan Maue on X.
“The ECMWF is predicting an unprecedented cold wave over northwest India between 24-30 January”, wrote climate scientist Pradeep on X.
He also warned that the models are showing something that could happen 10 days from now and different weather models such as the ECMWF and Global Forecasting System of the United States are not agreeing on the forecast.
“Too much discussion has been going on about the cold wave in north India for 25-30 January. Let’s be very clear. Only the ECMWF is showing extremely low temperatures. Many other global models are showing usual winters, no negatives over plains. So, kindly wait; it’s almost 10 days to go. Models may change,” Pradeep, who runs the X handle allindiaweather explained.