Subscribe
A strong 2026–27 El Niño could force India to generate an extra 17.7 TWh of fossil power.
This excess will be driven more by surging cooling demand than by renewable shortfalls.
Higher temperatures, weaker monsoons and reduced wind output may widen a generation gap that coal plants fill.
This will add millions of tonnes of CO₂ and test grid resilience.
India’s electricity planners may need to prepare for a new kind of energy challenge as a strong El Niño event is projected to push fossil fuel generation up by 17.7 terawatt hours (TWh) between July 2026 and June 2027, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Rather than renewable energy shortages alone, the biggest pressure is expected to come from soaring cooling demand as temperatures rise, highlighting the growing role of climate variability in power system planning.
The analysis estimated that higher temperatures could increase electricity demand by about 10 TWh during the period, while weaker monsoon conditions reduce hydropower generation by 2.9 TWh and wind generation by 4.9 TWh. Together, the changes could create a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh that would most likely be met by coal-fired power plants, resulting in an estimated 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions. Under a more severe scenario, fossil fuel generation could rise by nearly 24 TWh.
The findings suggested that India’s power system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to weather driven demand shocks rather than only fluctuations in renewable energy output.
While weaker rainfall and wind reduce renewable electricity generation, the report found that the larger contributor to additional fossil fuel generation is the sharp increase in electricity consumption for cooling. This marks a shift in how climate risks affect the power sector, with demand management emerging alongside supply security as a key planning priority.
The impacts are expected to differ across states. Karnataka is projected to record the largest increase in fossil fuel generation, driven mainly by rising cooling demand. Andhra Pradesh is expected to be more affected by declining hydropower, while Gujarat could see significant losses in wind generation. Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh are projected to experience higher fossil fuel generation primarily because of increased electricity demand, underscoring the need for state specific resilience strategies.
Unlike hydropower and wind, solar generation is expected to remain largely stable during El Niño conditions, reinforcing its growing role in India’s energy transition.
India added 44.6 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity last year, almost doubling the previous year’s additions. In 2025, total electricity generation increased by one per cent even as coal generation declined by four per cent and renewable electricity generation grew by 22 per cent. Between January and May 2026, thermal generation remained below 2024 levels despite record electricity demand, supported by almost one third growth in solar generation.
However, the report argued that expanding renewable capacity alone will not be enough.
Grid operators curtailed around 2.1 TWh of solar and wind generation last year to keep coal fired plants operating because of limited system flexibility. According to Ember, deploying just 10 gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery storage could have absorbed that surplus renewable electricity and shifted it to evening peak demand, reducing reliance on coal.
"India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all time high of 270 GW. A super El Niño will raise the stakes again, putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming," said Nandikesh Sivalingam, director, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
"India must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non fossil power by 2030 but also move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades, so that clean energy can meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably," he added.
The 2026-2027 El Niño should be viewed as a test of India's electricity system rather than simply another weather event, noted the authors of the report. The modelling, which compares the projected El Niño period with the preceding La Niña phase, suggests climate variability could increasingly shape electricity demand, renewable generation and fossil fuel use.
While the figures are scenario projections rather than forecasts, they point to the growing importance of batteries, transmission upgrades and grid flexibility alongside renewable energy expansion as India seeks to build a more resilient power system.