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Global nuclear power capacity could reach 1,446 GWe by 2050, surpassing the international pledge to triple nuclear energy.
This growth hinges on reactor lifetime extensions and new projects, with China, France, India, Russia, and the US leading the charge.
The report emphasises the need for accelerated construction rates and robust policy support to meet these ambitious targets.
Global nuclear power capacity could surge to 1,446 gigawatt electric (GWe) by 2050 if countries deliver on reactor lifetime extensions and new-build ambitions, surpassing the roughly 1,200 GWe level associated with the international pledge to triple nuclear energy, according to a new global nuclear outlook report.
The projection combines reactors that are operable, under construction, planned, proposed and considered potential, alongside stated government capacity targets, signalling strong policy backing for nuclear energy in climate and energy security strategies.
Most additions to 2030 are expected from reactors already under construction, while projects currently in planning drive expansion to 2035. Beyond that, growth increasingly depends on proposed and potential projects, as well as programmes linked directly to government targets.
Five countries — China, France, India, Russia and the United States — could together account for nearly 980 GWe of global capacity in 2050.
Meanwhile, newcomer countries collectively aim for about 157 GWe by mid-century, underscoring widening interest beyond traditional nuclear operators.
Of the reactors operating in 2025, about 189 GWe would have reached up to 60 years of service by 2050, and as much as 213 GWe more could still be running if lifetimes are extended to 80 years where feasible.
Historical data show no systematic age-related fall in performance, and extending plant lifetimes is highlighted as one of the most cost-effective ways to secure additional low-carbon electricity while avoiding premature closures.
Reaching the 2050 capacity level would require annual grid connections to climb steeply — from around 14.4 GWe per year in the late 2020s to 65.3 GWe per year in 2046–2050. That end-period rate is roughly double the historic peak achieved during the global nuclear build-out of the 1980s, pointing to major challenges in supply chains, financing, licensing and workforce readiness.
The report flagged 542 GWe of additional capacity tied to government targets that is not yet backed by clearly identified projects. In several cases, national goals depend on large expansions despite limited current construction or firm project pipelines, suggesting many targets remain aspirational and subject to policy, market and regulatory follow-through.
Long-term nuclear expansion is framed against structural drivers: Extending electricity access to hundreds of millions of people, serving a global population projected near 9.8 billion by 2050, economy-wide electrification, surging digital and data demand and the need for low-carbon heat in hard-to-abate sectors. Together, these trends reinforce the need for firm, low-carbon generation alongside variable renewables.
South Asia features prominently in the outlook through India’s role as one of the five countries expected to anchor nearly 980 GWe of global nuclear capacity in 2050. India’s inclusion in this leading group highlights expectations of sustained fleet expansion alongside established nuclear powers.
More broadly, the region reflects two parallel dynamics captured in the report: Continued build-out in countries with existing programmes, and growing interest from additional states exploring nuclear energy as part of long-term energy security and decarbonisation strategies. These trends position South Asia as an increasingly important contributor to global nuclear growth, particularly as electricity demand rises with population growth, urbanisation and industrialisation.
The report called on governments to embed nuclear power firmly in long-term decarbonisation and energy security plans, support plant lifetime extensions, reform electricity markets to ensure fair treatment of low-carbon sources and accelerate licensing, siting and financing frameworks.
Financial institutions are urged to adopt technology-neutral lending and ESG approaches, while industry is encouraged to expand manufacturing capacity, streamline series construction and prepare for large-scale deployment after 2035, including advanced and non-grid applications.
National ambitions for nuclear capacity now collectively exceed the global tripling benchmark, but turning targets into operating reactors will demand unprecedented build rates, robust policy support and sustained investment through mid-century.