India to improve weather forecasting accuracy for better power demand estimation, amid renewables push 

India is working to improve the accuracy of its weather forecasting system to estimate power demand better amid its renewable energy push, according to Ghanshyam Prasad, chairman of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

This assumes significance as solar and wind energy generation is highly dependent on local weather conditions. India, which aims to achieve 500 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil fuel energy by 2030, is no longer finding traditional broad-scale forecasts like state-wide or regional predictions sufficient. 

Generation has to reflect demand, Prasad said on August 22 at the BloombergNEF summit in New Delhi, adding that 40 GW of renewable capacity in the country is yet to find offtakers. 

The risk is India could end up with stressed assets, something that the thermal power sector has experienced, he said.

Demand forecasting is becoming more challenging due to unpredictable weather driven by climate change. This year, the CEA, a planning body within the power ministry, had projected 270 GW of peak demand. But so far, India has recorded only 242 GW as the hot season ends.

“This was due to almost continuous rains throughout the country, something that didn’t usually happen,” Prasad said.

He further said, “You need a very, very granular forecast, and we have taken up the matter with IMD (India Meteorological Department) and the Union Ministry of Environment and Forest. The ability to track cloud movements at specific locations is now critical.”

Currently, India’s weather forecasting operates at a resolution of 12 km by 12 km, with updates only twice a day. However, systems like the power grid function in 15-minute intervals, where many changes can occur quickly. This gap highlights the need for more frequent and localised forecasts.

Hence, the government’s goal is to improve the resolution to 4 km by 4 km within this year. This will enable more accurate, area-specific forecasts that better support sectors like agriculture, energy, and disaster management.

“To achieve this, we’ll provide IMD with the necessary tools—whether satellites, sensors, or other equipment—to continue improving forecast accuracy,” Prasad said.

Beyond daily or short-term forecasts, the country also needs reliable long-term projections for 2, 5, or even 10 years. These are crucial for infrastructure planning, climate strategy, and policymaking. Developing this capability will require advanced models, computing power, and high-quality data, said Prasad.

These are also vital for ensuring power sector stability as India scales up its reliance on renewable sources. The country added a record 22 GW of new solar and wind capacity in the first half of 2025.

As part of its reforms, the CEA is also moving from a five-year energy planning cycle to an annual model.

“That is a challenge that we have taken — if I do it every year, that means I will be able to capture the forecast better,” Prasad said.

About the reported solar curtailment issue due to delays in the commissioning of critical transmission lines and congestion in the existing transmission infrastructure, he said India’s existing and planned power transmission lines will soon be able to handle 478 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity. The remaining grid infrastructure to help the country achieve its goal of 500 GW of clean electricity installations by 2030 will be in place within three years.