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Karnataka today stands out as one of India’s most renewable-intensive electricity systems. With a provisional installed capacity of 36.4 gigawatt (GW), of which nearly 65 per cent comes from non-fossil sources, the state is often showcased as a leader in the clean energy transition. Its solar parks — from the Pavagada cluster to newer distributed installations — have become national models, while its wind corridors date back to the mid-1990s, when Karnataka installed its first turbine in Gadag in 1996.
Yet behind this success lies a growing structural challenge: despite an annual energy surplus, Karnataka is projected to face nearly 500 hours of power deficits in FY27, according to a resource adequacy assessment reviewed by Down To Earth. The paradox is striking — a state that produces more electricity over the year than it consumes still struggles to meet demand during specific hours and seasons.
As of August 2024, Karnataka’s average daily generation was 10.2 GW, against a total state demand of 11 GW. The margin between supply and demand is razor-thin — a mere 800 MW buffer in a system increasingly dominated by variable renewables. The mismatch between solar-rich afternoons and high-demand evenings has exposed cracks in what once appeared to be a perfect system, reaffirming the need for a comprehensive Resource Adequacy Plan through FY35 to ensure long-term reliability and planning resilience.
By 2024, Karnataka’s total installed capacity stood at 36.4 GW, comprising 7.3 GW solar, 6.5 GW wind, 5 GW thermal, 7 GW hydro, 370 MW gas, 980 MW small hydro, and over 1.4 GW cogeneration. Renewables together formed nearly two-thirds of the mix.
The core problem is not capacity, but timing. “The state is not energy-poor; it’s flexibility-poor,” says a senior grid planner familiar with the model. “Karnataka’s problem is timing, not quantity.”
According to the resource adequacy assessment for FY27, Karnataka’s projected peak demand is 19.7 GW, and its annual requirement is 107,998 million units (MU). On paper, the capacity mix looks more than adequate: solar exceeds 9.6 GW, wind stands above 7.3 GW, and the FY25-35 development pipeline includes over 25 GW of new solar and 13 GW of new wind.
But reliability metrics tell another story. The State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) projects a loss-of-load probability (LoLP) of 5.62 per cent — far above the target of 0.20 per cent. This equates to 492 hours of unmet demand in a typical year.
The shortfalls are concentrated almost entirely in March (284 hours) and April (201 hours), with only minor deficits elsewhere. Across the rest of the year, the state shows a surplus of more than 5,300 MU. Karnataka has energy — just not at the hours it needs it.
1. Solar and wind peak at the wrong times
Like everywhere, Karnataka’s demand peaks in the early evening, just as solar output collapses. Wind availability is also low in March and April.
“Wind is a problem because it used to come in the night when there was very low demand. At that time, we used to play with thermal,” said Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission chairperson P Ravi Kumar. High daytime solar output, he adds, often exceeds demand. “The frequency is going up very high. So, curtailment of RE is also taking place.” The curtailment though is currently at around five per cent.
2. Storage deployment is far behind need
Although long-term plans include 6 GWh of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and 6-8 GWh of pumped hydro, the FY27 horizon assumes only a modest 1,000 MW / 2-hour BESS — far short of multi-hour deficit requirements.
3. Old, inflexible thermal plants
Higher solar penetration requires thermal units to ramp down to 55 per cent, per Central Electricity Authority norms. “But thermal plants in Karnataka are very old legacy plants… They cannot come down to 55 per cent,” said Ravi Kumar. Instead, they run at “75-85 per cent,” forcing full shutdowns when RE surges. This increases “wear and tear, maintenance cost of thermal plants” and reduces grid flexibility.
4. Hydro is seasonal
Hydro provides crucial flexibility but is limited in the early summer months when deficits peak.
As the generation expanded, Karnataka reengineered its consumption patterns. About 35 per cent of agricultural load — traditionally met at night — was shifted to daytime to coincide with solar generation. SLDC chief engineer Ranga Raju said Karnataka maintains “99 per cent supply reliability,” among the highest in India. But the state’s success now brings a new challenge: delivering power precisely when needed. Bengaluru’s BESCOM continues to announce scheduled outages, including a seven-hour shutdown on November 18 for maintenance at the Adugodi Power Station.
“Our challenge isn’t how much we generate — it’s how precisely we can deliver it,” says Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited Managing Director K P Rudrappaiah. “The grid has become a living organism. Every unit of renewable energy must find its hour.”
· Gujarat has a more diversified load curve and stronger interstate corridors, reducing concentrated deficit months.
· Rajasthan faces evening ramps but benefits from massive solar surpluses and hybrid tenders.
· Tamil Nadu has long experience balancing volatile wind and maintains a more flexible thermal fleet.
Karnataka’s deficits are uniquely clustered in March-April, shaped by rising demand, weak wind, low hydro availability, and ageing thermal plants.