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The International Energy Agency warned that global oil and gas fields are depleting faster.
This poses supply and price risks, especially for import-reliant India.
The report highlights the need for diversification, domestic exploration, and cleaner alternatives to ensure energy security as shale and offshore resources decline rapidly.
Global oil and gas fields are depleting faster than before, forcing producers to invest more just to maintain current output levels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned on September 16, 2025.
For heavily import-dependent India, IEA in a report, titled The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, said faster decline rates in global oil and gas fields heighten supply and price risks.
IEA warned that delays in new projects could threaten India’s energy security, underscoring the need for diversification, domestic exploration and cleaner alternatives.
The report highlighted that the average rate at which the fields’ output naturally declines has accelerated significantly, largely because the industry is increasingly reliant on shale and deep offshore resources, which deplete faster than conventional onshore fields.
“Decline rates are the elephant in the room for any discussion of investment needs in oil and gas, and our new analysis shows that they have accelerated in recent years,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “The industry has to run much faster just to stand still.”
According to IEA, nearly 90 per cent of upstream oil and gas investment every year is now spent simply to offset natural declines at existing fields, rather than to expand supply. Only a small fraction of spending goes towards meeting new demand.
Without fresh investment, global oil production would shrink by 5.5 million barrels per day (mb / d) each year, up from under 4 mb / d in 2010, while natural gas output would fall by 270 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually, compared to 180 bcm in 2010.
“In the case of oil, an absence of upstream investment would remove the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production each year from the global market balance,” Birol warned.
The report drew on data from around 15,000 oil and gas fields worldwide. It finds sharp differences in decline rates by field type and geography.
Onshore supergiant fields in the Middle East decline at less than 2 per cent a year. Smaller offshore fields in Europe drop at over 15 per cent a year.
Tight oil and shale gas wells saw the steepest declines: Without reinvestment, output plunges over 35 per cent in the first year and another 15 per cent in the second.
This growing dependence on high-decline resources means supply can fall quickly without sustained drilling and capital spending, the report said.
Even if companies continue to invest in maintaining current fields, the IEA estimated that more than 45 mb / d of oil and nearly 2,000 bcm of natural gas from new conventional fields will be needed by 2050 just to hold global output steady at today’s levels.
That is equivalent to adding the total oil and gas production of the world’s top three producers combined. These volumes could be lower if oil and gas demand declines in line with clean energy transitions, but as of now demand remains resilient.
Accelerating decline rates in global oil and gas fields could heighten supply and price risks for India, which relies on imports for over 85 per cent of its crude and 45 per cent of its gas.
With global output from existing fields falling 5.5 mb / d annually without new investment, India faces rising vulnerability to disruptions, especially as shale and deep offshore resources deplete fastest. The agency urged India to strengthen energy security through diversified sourcing, expanded strategic reserves, faster domestic exploration and a parallel push for clean alternatives like green hydrogen and biofuels to reduce import dependence.
The report also warned that developing new oil and gas resources takes time — often close to 20 years on average from licensing to first production.
This includes almost a decade to make discoveries and another 10 years for appraisal, approvals and construction. This means any delays in exploration or investment today could leave the market undersupplied well into the 2030s and 2040s, with implications for energy security, price volatility and emissions.
The IEA said the findings underscore the need for careful attention to supply-side dynamics in global energy debates that often focus mainly on demand.
“Careful attention needs to be paid to the potential consequences for market balances, energy security and emissions,” Birol said.