AMR could claim 39 million more lives by 2050, cost $159 billion annually: WOAH

The growing threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has the potential to affect 2 billion people, claim almost 39 million more lives and increase global health costs by $159 billion annually by 2050, according to the most extensive modelling of AMR’s impact to date by the World Organisation for Animal Health.

A series of new papers released on September 26, 2024 found that drug resistance is not an expensive problem to solve, with an estimated cost of $63 billion per year with a return as high as $28 for every dollar invested. The EcoAMR papers examined the potential impacts of AMR on human health and the economy, along with other related consequences.

The analysis for the series used the latest data from 204 countries and 621 subnational locations to estimate the impact of AMR on mortality, healthcare costs, food security and the global economy. The series warned that about 39 million lives could be lost due to AMR by 2050, especially among the elderly population in low- and middle-income countries.

AMR occurs when microorganisms — bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites — develop resistance to drugs that once effectively treated infections. Patients with resistant infections face higher medical costs for treatment, including longer hospital stays, prolonged illness and increased mortality rates.

The researchers claimed that the analysis, produced by a global partnership of leading health and development organisations, was the first to comprehensively forecast the economic and health burdens of AMR on both humans and food-producing animals.

The researchers built on a previous time series with improved methods and data and applied an established forecasting model to predict the future impact of AMR from 2022 to 2050. This includes a main forecast (the most likely outcome) and alternative scenarios.

According to the series’ report Forecasting the Fallout from AMR: Human Health Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance, previous time series showed that AMR death rates remained relatively stable between 1990 and 2021. However, the new estimates pointed to an increase in global deaths attributed to AMR by 60 per cent between 2022 and 2050. It forecast an increase in deaths to 1.84 million in 2050 from 1.15 million in 2022 — an increase of 38.52 million cumulatively.

The future AMR burden was projected to be highest in South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa — the super-regions.

While deaths of children under five due to AMR were expected to reduce globally and across all super-regions. The number of global deaths due to AMR could decrease from 206,000 to 100,000, a reduction of about 51 per cent. Among the super-regions, the decreases ranged from 39.31 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa to 67.08 per cent in South Asia, the report observed.

However, deaths among people over the age of 70 due to AMR was forecast to more than double. By 2050, it was estimated that more than half of the projected deaths would occur in the oldest age group.

“The increase in the 70+ age group was 131 per cent globally and ranged between 51 per cent in high-income countries and 230 per cent in the North Africa and Middle East super-regions,” the report stated.

The United Nations acknowledged AMR as one of the top 10 global health threats to humanity, leading to the rise of “superbugs,” including bacteria that no longer responded to antibiotics.

Another report from the series, Forecasting the Fallout from AMR: Economic Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance in Humans, stated that if left unaddressed, the median costs to treat resistant infections per hospital could vary from $100 to $30,000 depending on the country’s income and the type of infection.

Effective interventions resulting in zero deaths from AMR were estimated to increase the global population by 22.2 million in 2050, with an additional 8 million people in the workforce.

The report highlighted that AMR would negatively impact tourism and hospitality, especially in poorer and more vulnerable countries. Currently, the direct healthcare costs linked to AMR were calculated at $66 billion per year, representing 0.7 per cent of global health expenditures and were expected to rise to 1.2 per cent if unaddressed.

“Without effective interventions, healthcare costs could increase by $176 billion (1.14 per cent) per year by 2050 and global output could be $1.7 trillion (0.83 per cent) lower than in a business-as-usual scenario,” the report stated.

The authors of the series urged for immediate investment to support AMR National Action Plans, as nearly 90 per cent of them had no funding allocated for their implementation.

Improved investments in interventions, such as new antibiotics, healthcare improvements, universal vaccine coverage and sanitation and hygiene, had the potential to prevent over 110 million human deaths between 2025 and 2050, the series noted.

“AMR imposed a significant economic burden, but taking prudent action now would provide a significant return on investment through reduced healthcare costs, improved economies and a healthier society overall,” said Anthony McDonnell, policy fellow at the Centre for Global Development, in a press statement.

It was in the interest of high-income countries to ensure access to high-quality treatments in poorer regions, he underlined. Investing in access to antibiotics and innovation for new drugs could also reduce human health costs by $97 billion per year, increase the labour force by 23 million people and raise tourism by 1.2 per cent and hospitality by 0.6 per cent, adding $960 billion to the annual GDP, while generating a further $679 billion per year in health value, according to the human economic analysis.