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The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has entered a more dangerous phase after spreading to a sixth province, with health authorities warning that the epidemic could continue for nine to 12 months — or even longer — if transmission is not brought under control.
As of August 17, 2026, the outbreak had recorded 4,945 cases and 2,325 deaths across six provinces, which means the case fatality rate of about 47 per cent. The death toll has already surpassed the 2,299 deaths recorded during the 2018–2020 Ebola outbreak in DRC, making the current epidemic the deadliest in the country's history according to DR Congo's Institute of Public Health.
The latest expansion came on August 14, when Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) confirmed an Ebola death in Bas-Uele, a province that had not previously been affected. The outbreak has now spread from its original epicentre in Ituri to North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uele, Tshopo and Bas-Uele.
The geographical expansion has intensified concerns at both Africa CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO).
Africa CDC Director-General Jean Kaseya has warned that, if the outbreak is not stopped, it could continue for more than a year and potentially become the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded.
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on August 12 that, under a worst-case scenario, the epidemic could last between nine and 12 months.
The 17th Ebola outbreak was officially declared on May 15, 2026, in Ituri province in northeastern DRC. Health officials believe the virus had already been circulating for months before it was detected, allowing transmission to become established in communities before a coordinated response began.
Most cases and deaths remain concentrated in Ituri, which accounts for roughly 90 per cent of reported cases. But the emergence of cases in the sixth additional province shows that transmission is no longer confined to the original epicentre.
The 2014–2016 West Africa outbreak remains the largest and deadliest, with about 28,600 cases and more than 11,300 deaths across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, a fatality rate of roughly 40 per cent.
The outbreak is caused by the rare Bundibugyo species of Ebola and it is not yet the largest Ebola epidemic ever recorded. But what is alarming about the current DRC outbreak is the pace at which deaths have been recorded.
The outbreak resulted in over 2,000-deaths in less than three months. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned that, at its current pace, the outbreak could eventually surpass the death toll of the West African epidemic.
The current outbreak therefore stands apart not because it has already exceeded the global record, but because its rapid spread and high fatality rate have raised the possibility that it could do so if the trajectory is not reversed.
A major reason for the high death toll is that many patients are not reaching Ebola treatment facilities in time. WHO Regional Director for Africa Dr Mohamed Janabi has said that around 60-70 per cent of deaths are occurring in communities rather than in treatment centres.
Patients in remote areas can face long journeys over poor roads before they reach appropriate care, while some seek medical help only after becoming seriously ill.
This delay has consequences beyond the individual patient. If someone dies at home or elsewhere in the community, relatives and others handling the body can be exposed to infectious bodily fluids. Bodies may also be transported back to villages for burial, creating further opportunities for transmission.
Professor Aileen M. Marty, an infectious disease expert who helped the WHO respond to the major West African Ebola epidemic a decade ago, has argued that the high mortality and rapid spread have more to do with conditions on the ground than with the biological characteristics of the virus.
The outbreak is also taking place in one of the most difficult environments for a public-health response. Parts of eastern DRC have experienced years of armed conflict and displacement. Poor roads and weak healthcare infrastructure make it difficult for medical teams to reach remote communities.
Population movement, including movement linked to insecurity and economic activity, creates additional opportunities for the virus to travel.
At the same time, misinformation and mistrust have made some communities reluctant to cooperate with response teams. Healthcare facilities have been attacked and health workers have faced threats and protests.
For instance, in Bunia, an angry crowd set fire to part of a hospital after relatives of a young footballer suspected of dying from Ebola were prevented from taking his body away for burial. The United Nations has reported that at least a dozen healthcare facilities have been attacked during the outbreak, disrupting treatment, surveillance and contact tracing.
These challenges are making it harder for health authorities to see the full extent of the outbreak. Contact tracing is central to Ebola control because people exposed to an infected person can be monitored for symptoms and isolated quickly if they become sick. But a significant number of cases in DRC are occurring outside known contact chains.
Tedros has warned that a high proportion of deaths are taking place in communities and outside known contact lists. That indicates that transmission chains remain unidentified, allowing the virus to spread before health authorities know where to intervene.
The expansion into Bas-Uele makes these gaps even more concerning. Every new province means more communities to monitor, more contacts to trace and greater distances for response teams to cover.
The outbreak is also challenging because it is being caused by Bundibugyo virus, a rare Ebola species that has previously caused only two known outbreaks, in 2007 and 2012.
There is currently no approved vaccine specifically for Bundibugyo Ebola and no specific treatment in routine use for the strain. However, two vaccine candidates have recently entered early-stage safety trials in United Kingdom and Canada.
These developments could become important for future outbreaks, but they will not provide an immediate solution to the current epidemic.
Early-stage trials are primarily designed to establish safety and immune responses, meaning further testing would be required before any vaccine could be widely deployed.
The response is also under financial and operational pressure. Healthcare workers have gone on strike over unpaid wages, including at a treatment centre in Ituri that was temporarily shut on August 13.
At the same time, WHO says the regional response plan requires $518 million, but only $264 million had been disbursed by August 12. Roughly half of the requested funding therefore remained unavailable.
The funding gap directly affects the ability to transport patients, maintain treatment centres, conduct surveillance and contact tracing, provide protective equipment, pay health workers and engage communities.
Uganda has also reported Ebola infections linked to the wider outbreak, highlighting the continuing risk of cross-border transmission. Neighbouring countries are strengthening surveillance and preparedness as people continue to move across borders.
Despite the setbacks, there are signs that the response has built important capacity. At least 880 patients have recovered, while more than 21,000 community health workers have reportedly been trained to support the response.
According to WHO, the immediate priorities are to detect cases earlier, bring patients into treatment quickly, identify missing contacts, protect health workers and rebuild trust in affected communities. More funding will be essential to sustain those measures, particularly in remote and conflict-affected areas.
The recent warnings from WHO and Africa CDC is therefore not simply about the possibility of a longer outbreak. It is about the consequences of failing to close the gaps that are allowing Ebola to spread unseen.
The outbreak has already reached six provinces and killed 2,325 people in just three months. It is now the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record by confirmed cases and the deadliest ever recorded in DRC.
