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A cyclone, the first in 2026 in the North Indian Ocean region, could form in the Bay of Bengal in the following week, with chances of moving close to the Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coasts. The exact intensity and track of the storm system will get clearer after the formation of the low pressure area and the local atmospheric and oceanic conditions it encounters.
If it forms the cyclone (which would be named Arnab) would be the first cyclone to form in the North Indian Ocean region since cyclone Ditwah in November 2025, which caused more than 600 deaths in Sri Lanka and India.
On September 17, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated the presence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over north Thailand. The weather agency said that the system would emerge into the north Andaman Sea around the evening of September 18.
The cyclonic circulation which exists in the upper layers of the atmosphere would then induce a low pressure area towards the surface over the north Andaman Sea region, according to the latest tropical weather outlook issued by IMD. After that, it could intensify gradually and move in a west and northwestwards direction towards the coasts of south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh.
The meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as modelled on the weather visualisation website windy.com showed the formation of a cyclone with a distorted eye around September 23-24.
Weather data from the United States’ Global Forecasting System (GFS) modelled on windy.com showed the formation of a cyclone with a distorted eye and centre around the same time.
The agreement of ECMWF and GFS models on the formation of a weak distorted cyclone increases the likelihood of the formation of the storm while frequent changes in the forecast make it unpredictable. The unpredictability would mean that the IMD will have to keep a close eye on the formation, propagation and intensification of the low pressure system from the beginning.