Raising investments for meeting increased energy demand for cooling will be a key challenge for many African countries
Representative photo: iStock. Africa will witness an extreme surge in temperatures if the planet overshoots climate targets, warned a new study by new Oxford University.
Countries in Africa will see a tremendous increase in cooling requirements if the global mean temperature exceeds the Paris climate agreement threshold of 1.5°C and rises to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, added the findings of the study published in journal Nature Sustainability.
The countries most affected by extreme temperatures will be the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Mali, South Sudan, Nigeria, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Uganda and Cameroon, the research added.
The scientists used cooling degree days (CDD) — a widely used method to assess the energy needed to keep people comfortable — to identify the most vulnerable among these African countries. They analysed the world in 60 km grids every six hours to ensure accurate temperature averages.
The results showed that regions surrounding the Equator, particularly the Sub-Saharan region — Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Mali and South Sudan — will experience the largest increase in cooling demand. These countries would require more than 250 additional CDD, indicating the need for stepped-up climate mitigation efforts.
Significant changes in CDD values show that these countries will experience the highest increase in cooling demand. These conditions will further stress the continent’s socio-economic development and energy networks.
Many African countries are now at an energy crossroads and raising investments to meet increased energy demand for cooling might challenge their sustainable development targets.
Alarmingly, Africa had the highest historical cooling requirements between 2009 and 2018. Over the African continent, 2018 was the fourth warmest on record since 1950. The northeastern region of the continent, particularly the Horn of Africa, was anomalously warm, with temperature anomalies reaching more than 2°C above average.
These countries are likely to experience extreme heatwave events that are predicted to occur more frequently in the near future. A 2022 report warned of a surge in such events as the global mean temperature increases to 1.5°C by the 2030s.
Moreover, global CDDs are projected to increase by around 25 per cent by 2050, with the greatest increases predicted in already hot places with the fastest population growths.
Extreme heat is a silent killer whose impacts are immense. It poses considerable challenges to sustainable development and creates new emergency needs that demand a humanitarian response. Temperature extremes can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion and even death, especially among vulnerable populations.
The study emphasised the urgent need for more research to address this rising threat, specific to Africa, which has been relatively understudied. The current planning and implementation of energy and climate policies across countries must be redesigned to build resilience to a hotter local climate, it added.
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