As climate change snuffs life out of hydroelectric sources, Zambia feels need to diversify energy mix

In the face of climate change and its impact on hydropower production, Zambia is increasingly turning to alternative renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.

Zambia is predominantly dependent on hydropower, which currently accounts for over 80 per cent of its power production, sourced mainly from two main hydropower stations, namely the Kariba and Itezhi-Tezhi dams.

The country has installed generation capacity of 3,356.6 megawatts; 83 per cent of this is hydro and increasingly vulnerable to climate change; nine per cent is coal; five per cent heavy fuel oil; and three per cent solar photovoltaic.

However, despite the country’s huge hydropower potential, climate change and variability have serious implications for the future of hydropower generation and the country’s diversification of power mix.

Persistent drought due to climate change has caused severe limitations on continued reliance on hydropower, placing a premium on Zambia to diversify to other energy sources.

Zambia is currently experiencing enhanced load shedding due to power shortage caused by reduced water levels in Lake Kariba, one of the major power stations.

Need to diversify

To address the power deficit, experts and other stakeholders posit that Zambia must diversify its energy mix. 

Hartley Walimwipi, energy and climate change expert, noted that climate change poses a serious threat to hydropower generation. He said:

It is not just drought but also temperature rise that affects evapo-transpiration on catchment areas as well as large reservoirs like Kariba dam. Floods are also a risk as they can destroy infrastructure for power generation. 

“To address the threat of climate change to hydropower generation, we have to diversify to alternatives that don’t push our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up,” he said.

Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema a fortnight ago commissioned a 60-megawatt Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC) Itimpi Solar Plant in the second city of Kitwe, which has been hailed as a significant milestone in achieving diversification within the energy sector, with the potential to mitigate the current power deficit in the country.

In his address, Hichilema underscored the importance of diversifying the energy sector in response to the effects of climate change and the timeliness of the initiative, especially amid the challenges posed by El Nino on hydroelectric power.

Last year, the president also commissioned CEC’s 34MW solar energy in Riverside, Kitwe, bringing the total solar energy capacity created by CEC recently to 94MW.

Stakeholders said the plant not only marked a significant step forward in addressing Zambia’s energy challenges but also set a precedent for sustainable development and cooperation within the energy sector.

End of hydro honeymoon

Zambian energy expert Johnstone Chikwanda described the investment as a leap of faith based on understanding that the days of depending on hydro-electricity are numbered.

“The maximum hydro-electric potential in Zambia is widely considered to be 6,000MW. Therefore, the future of Zambia’s energy requirements when what will be required is more than what rivers can generously give lies in other energy pathways. And if Zambia’s industrialisation agenda remains valid, at least 10,000MW will be needed in the next few years, said Chikwanda, adding:

With frightening news from the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) indicating that the water level in the Kariba reservoir has fallen to the lowest in the past 100 years, perhaps, it is high time we started behaving as if Kariba does not exist. It is self-sabotage to bank our hopes in one form of energy and hope to navigate our way around without breaking ‘egg shells’.

The Kariba Lake is designed to operate between levels 475.5 metres and 488.5 m (with 0.7 m freeboard) for hydropower generation.

According to the ZRA weekly bulletin, the lake level has been steady with records of fluctuations being observed, closing the period under review at 477.49 m (13.80 per cent usable storage) on April 22, 2024, compared to 478.90 m (23.83 per cent usable storage) recorded on the same date last year.

Zambia has abundant renewable energy resources available throughout the country and enjoys long and intense hours of annual sunlight to support solar energy generation, averaging about 2,000-3,000 hours of sunshine per year.

The solar power market remains dominated by government, non-profits and donor-funded projects.

Zambia implemented the first Scaling Solar project by the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) in close coordination with its Ministry of Energy.

In March 2019, a joint French (Neoen)-American (First Solar) consortium commissioned Zambia’s first utility-scale solar project, a 47.5 MW plant that is providing power directly into ZESCO’s national grid.

Italian firm Enel commissioned the second Scaling Solar project in May 2020, providing 26 MW of solar power to the grid.

National access to electricity averages 31 per cent, with 67 per cent of the urban and only four per cent of the rural population having access to power.

In a significant move towards sustainable energy, Zambia and the United Arab Emirates last year signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) and joint development agreement (JDA) to facilitate investment in renewable energy in the country.

The MoU and JDA will see ZESCO, the country’s state-owned electricity company, partner with MASDAR, a key investment funding entity of the UAE, to form a joint venture in developing and deploying large-scale solar projects across the country, estimated at $2 billion. The initiative is expected to increase Zambia’s power generation by more than half through the development of 2,000 megawatts of solar power projects.

“This is not a loan but a capital injection in which the Zambian people, through ZESCO, will be partners in shareholding,” Hichilema said.

The projects will be undertaken in a phased manner, starting with the installation of 500 megawatts and once completed, will result in an additional 2,000 megawatts of electricity in the country within the next few years.

Newton Vusa Sibanda is a freelance Journalist based in Lusaka, Zambia.

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