December will be dry as IMD has forecast below normal rainfall for most of India during the month
The winter season of 2022 (December to February) is going to be colder-than-normal for many parts of southern India while it is going to be warmer-than-normal for northwest and northeast India, according to the seasonal outlook for temperatures and rainfall published by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on December 1, 2022.
The warm temperatures in the region would also be accompanied by a dry period in December as IMD has forecast below normal rainfall for most of India in the month. This is a bit unusual as the northwestern states are generally known for their frigid winters while the southern states are known for their mild winter seasons.
Another unusual aspect of the situation is the ongoing La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally bring colder and wetter-than-normal winters for India.
La Niña conditions are predicted to continue throughout the winter season according to the IMD. The La Niña conditions may even continue until March 2023, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s latest update.
Most of northwest India would experience normal or above normal minimum temperatures, according to IMD, which would mean warm nights. The maximum temperatures in the region would also be above normal, which would mean warmer-than-normal days.
Read IMD predicts a warm winter in some regions despite La Nina
The most drastic impact would be on the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir where there is a 55-75 per cent chance of warmer nights. This could be true for most parts of Himachal Pradesh, many parts of Uttarakhand as well and most of northeast India.
The warm days would be prevalent across a much bigger area as there is a 75 per cent chance of above normal maximum temperatures in western Rajasthan, most of Punjab, Haryana and Uttarakhand. The entirety of northeast India has a 55-75 per cent chance of warmer-than-normal days.
The impact of such above normal day and night temperatures in mountainous regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh could be experienced in the form of glacier melting in the region.
The first three states were also impacted by early and intense heatwaves in the spring and summer season of 2022 (March to May).
This is in stark contrast to the predicted situation in southern India, where most of the areas would experience colder days and nights. The rainfall for December for south India would be normal, according to IMD.
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