Environment

IMD releases monsoon forecast for August and September

The rainfall is expected to be above normal across the country during August and September

 
By Rivika Bisht
Last Updated: Monday 01 August 2016
August will experience about 104 per cent of the rainfall forecast in the long period average. Credit: melgupta/ Flicker
August will experience about 104 per cent of the rainfall forecast in the long period average. Credit: melgupta/ Flicker August will experience about 104 per cent of the rainfall forecast in the long period average. Credit: melgupta/ Flicker

The IMD released its forecast for the remaining period of the monsoon season—August to September.

On an average, the rainfall is expected to be above normal (107 per cent) across the country during August and September. August will experience about 104 per cent of the season’s rainfall forecast in the long period average (June—September)

Although El Nino effects in the Pacific and Indian Oceans ended in May 2016, IMD has reported high probability of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions responsible for periodic variations in winds and sea surface temperatures.

Weak La Nina conditions that lead to cooling of sea surface levels in the Pacific are predicted as per global models.

Overall rainfall for the whole of southwest monsoon season (June to September) is expected to be above normal (106 per cent) as predicted in the long period forecast.

Cumulative rainfall until July

Eight subdivisions have rainfall deficit at the moment, as reported by IMD.

Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kerala, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh and most of the northeastern states (except Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim) have received deficient rainfall ( -20 per cent to -59 per cent of normal level)

Excess rainfall (20 per cent or more of normal level) was experienced in nine of the sub-divisions.

Madhya Pradesh, western UP, Marathwada, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are some of the regions that received excess rain.

IMD report for last week (July 21-27)

IMD reported excess or normal rainfall in 22 and deficient or scanty rainfall in 14 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions during the week.

Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast and Konkan Goa and coastal Karnataka in southwest divisions of the country received widespread rain (between 75 per cent and 100 per cent of the places) almost throughout the week.

Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh and Rajasthan received isolated rainfall (in about 25 per cent of places)

Overall, Gujarat and western Rajasthan received scanty rainfall.

Eastern UP and Bihar received scattered rainfall (25 per cent to 50 per cent of places) throughout the week.

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