Negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security are likely to extend into 2023, according to FAO
Wheat accumulations are expected mostly in China and the Russian Federation for 2022-2023 according to a new FAO report. Photo: iStock
The world’s food import bill, at $1.94 trillion in 2022, was estimated to reach another record in 2022, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its latest biannual report. This was coming at a time when many economically vulnerable countries were paying more while receiving less food, it added.
The new forecast marked an all-time high and a 10 per cent increase over the record level of 2021, according to the Food Outlook report released November 11.
It pointed to a growing accessibility issue for economically vulnerable countries:
The bulk of the increase in the bill is accounted for by high-income countries, due mostly to higher world prices, while volumes are also expected to rise. Economically vulnerable country groups are being more affected by the higher prices. For instance, the aggregate food import bill for the group of low-income countries is expected to remain almost unchanged even though it is predicted to shrink by 10 percent in volume terms.
However, the year-on-year increase will likely be less pronounced than in the previous year, owing to the falling purchasing power of importers at a time when food prices are at all-time highs.
The Food Outlook report warned that existing differences are likely to become more pronounced, with high-income countries continuing to import across the entire spectrum of food products, while developing regions are increasingly focused on staple foods.
“These are alarming signs from a food security perspective, indicating importers are finding it difficult to finance rising international costs, potentially heralding an end of their resilience to higher international prices,” the report said.
It also assessed global expenditures on imported agricultural inputs, including fertilisers. The global input import bill is expected to rise to $424 billion in 2022, up 48 per cent from 2021 and as much as 112 per cent from 2020.
The foreseen increase was mostly due to higher costs for imported energy and fertilisers. This, the report warned, would force vulnerable countries to reduce input applications, thus resulting in lower agricultural productivity and lower domestic food availability.
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Negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security are likely to extend into 2023, according to FAO. The report also breaks down food trade patterns by food groups.
In terms of wheat, the global production was forecast to reach a record 784 million tonnes in 2022-23. That should push global wheat inventories to record levels.
The report though noted that the accumulations are expected mostly in China and the Russian Federation, while stock levels are predicted to drop by eight per cent in the rest of the world.
Inclement weather and sharp hikes in input costs are predicted to lower world rice output for the first time in three years.
However, the 2022-23 global harvest was “still envisaged to remain at an overall average level of 512.6 million tonnes (milled basis). Asia is seen largely underpinning this result, thanks to a resilient level of plantings, which should help to counteract some of the yield declines anticipated to stem chiefly from poorly distributed rains, especially in Southern Asia.”
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