Populism, polemics, pandemic and cadre base helped BJP win Assam: Experts

Populist policies, polemical rhetoric, a strong cadre base and even the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) helped the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tide over anti-incumbency and retain power in Assam, experts said May 2, 2021.

The incidents in the run-up to the COVID-19 pandemic making its appearance in India and the state government’s handling of the crisis may have helped it win the poll, Deban Bhattacharya, state secretary of the Communist Party of India, told this reporter.

Wide-spread protests against the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) had rocked Assam as well as other parts of India after the CAA was passed in December 2019.

The leaderless protests led by people of Assam, especially students, forced the BJP government to go on the back foot on the implementation of a nationwide NRC.

There were huge protests against the CAA in Assam in December 2019.  Five persons lost their lives during such protests in Guwahati. 

However, the protests had to be suspended in February 2020 after COVID-19 hit the country.

Bhattacharya said:

The BJP swiftly carried out all their core agendas in the first year itself including the abrogation of Article 370, triple talaq and the CAA. The upshot of what they did was the deepening of the communal divide in the country.

He added that COVID-19 played the role of a ‘speed breaker’ for anti-CAA protesters. “Protests against the BJP slowed during the pandemic. The BJP took advantage of it,” he added.

Others said the pandemic did not have a role to play in the win. Santanu Borthakur, political analyst and advocate of the Gauhati High Court attributed the victory to three factors. Management’ was the main factor, he said. The BJP succeeded in winning tea garden voters to their side.

The party also promised to increase the financial assistance given to pregnant women of the tea garden community to Rs 18,000, from the current amount of Rs 12,000, Borthakur said. They also succeeded in convincing the state’s voters that there was no credible alternative to them, he added.

Others credited the BJP and its ideological parent the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s strong cadre base.

“We campaigned from door-to-door and met every voter. We organised 27,000 booth-level committees in Assam during the election. The booth-level committees played important role,” BJP Guwahati district president and ex-Mayor of the Guwahati Municipal Corporation, Mrigen Sarnia, said.

Akhil Ranjan Dutta, political analyst and professor at the political science department of Gauhati University, agreed on the populism and organisation points:

They (the BJP) have two things. One is populism and the other is organisation. The party’s populist policies like the ‘Orunodoi’ scheme for low-income families, Arundhuti scheme for women’s welfare, giving a free two-wheeler to girls, free admissions for poor students, endeared them to various segments such as girls, women and tribal communities. Given their cadre base, they also reached out to all ethnic groups.

The BJP, along with its allies — Asom Gana Parishad and United People’s Party Liberal — was leading in 75 of the 126 Assembly seats for which trends were available by 6 pm May 2. The Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ was leading in 50 seats.

Assam Pradesh Congress committee (APCC) President Ripun Bora said, “We have accepted the verdict of the people. I do not want to give any comment before party-level committee discussions.”

Subscribe to Daily Newsletter :

SUPPORT US

We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.