An early monsoon over Kerala is not indicative of the impact over rest of the country; monsoon rains may arrive over central India by June-end, 2 weeks later than expected
The Indian Metrological Department’s (IMD) long-range forecast May 14, 2021 predicted that monsoon winds will bring rainfall over Kerala from May 31 — one day prior to the normal date of arrival.
The monsoon system may get affected by cyclones in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Cyclone Yaas, which had been brewing in the Bay of Bengal for the last few days, made landfall on May 26, hitting the coastal districts of Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak and Balasore in Odisha.
In 2020, cyclones Amphan and Nisarga pulled up the onset of monsoon to June 1, originally predicted for June 5. Cyclone Yaas is predicted to have a similar influence in 2021.
Cyclone Yaas is the 14th pre-monsoon cyclone (April to May) to hit Odisha out of 138 cyclones since 1804, said Uma Charan Mohanty, former professor, Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi.
But, an early monsoon onset over Kerala is not indicative of the impact over the rest of the country: Due to pre-monsoon rainfall caused by Cyclone Tauktae, monsoon rains may arrive over central India by the end of June — two weeks later than they were supposed to.
In Telangana, the normal onset is expected to happen June 10, as opposed to the prediction of June 24-July 2. The normal onset for Delhi is expected to happen June 27. But the rains might reach between July 11 and July 17 this year.
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