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Plastic use and waste could nearly double in Southeast and East Asia by 2050 without urgent policy reforms.
The ASEAN Plus Three region faces a significant challenge, with mismanaged waste threatening ecosystems and human wellbeing.
The report calls for ambitious measures to curb plastic pollution and promote recycling.
Plastic use and waste are set to spiral out of control in southeast and east Asia, unless countries urgently overhaul current policies, warned a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Under current policies, plastic use in the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region is projected to nearly double from 152 million tonnes in 2022 to 280 million tonnes by 2050. The APT region includes the 10 ASEAN countries — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam — along with China, Japan and South Korea.
This surge, driven largely by short-lived products like packaging, is expected to trigger a parallel rise in plastic waste, which is set to more than double from 113 million tonnes to 242 million tonnes over the same period, according to the report.
Packaging waste alone will jump from 49 million tonnes to 91 million tonnes, underscoring the scale of the region’s growing waste challenge.
According to the report, China is projected to see the largest absolute increase in plastic waste in the APT region, rising from 76 million tonnes in 2022 to 160 million tonnes by 2050.
But the most dramatic relative growth will occur in lower-middle-income ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, where plastic waste is expected to nearly quadruple — from 7.5 million tonnes to 28 million tonnes.
Despite some improvements in waste management, most plastic waste in the region continues to be landfilled, incinerated or mismanaged. In 2022, 29 per cent of the region’s plastic waste was mismanaged — far exceeding the share that is recycled — leading to increasing environmental leakage.
Even though the share of mismanaged plastic waste in the APT region is expected to decline from 29 per cent in 2022 to 23 per cent by 2050, the overall volume of waste will grow significantly, the report warned.
As a result, the absolute amount of mismanaged waste will rise from 33 million tonnes to 56 million tonnes — posing escalating risks to ecosystems and communities.
In 2022 alone, the region was responsible for 8.4 million tonnes of plastic leaking into the environment — over a third of the global total — making it a global hotspot for plastic pollution. Without urgent intervention, this annual leakage could rise to 14.1 million tonnes by 2050, largely from lower-middle-income ASEAN countries and China, with 5.1 million tonnes flowing into rivers, coasts and oceans.
Plastic pollution in rivers, lakes and oceans is projected to increase, putting biodiversity, fisheries, ocean-based economies, livelihoods and human wellbeing at serious risk.
By 2050, plastic buildup in freshwater bodies — including rivers and lakes — is projected to reach 126 million tonnes, more than double the levels in 2022. Ocean plastic could more than triple to 55 million tonnes, further damaging already fragile marine ecosystems alerts the report.
Once in the environment, plastics persist for decades and frequently cross borders, amplifying the regional and global impacts.
However, this could be avoided, said the authors of the report and showed the pathway. Countries in the region need to adopt ambitious measures across the entire plastic lifecycle — under the Global High Stringency scenario. Under such a scenario, plastics use in 2050 could drop by 28 per cent and plastic waste by 23 per cent, the report suggests.
The scenario offers the greatest global environmental benefits at the lowest cost. As per the report, secondary (recycled) plastics could meet all future growth in demand, enabling primary plastic use to remain below 2022 levels.
Under this scenario, the average recycling rate is projected to rise to 54 per cent, while mismanaged waste — including plastic leakage — could drop by 97 per cent compared to a no-policy-change scenario.
In view of the cross-border plastics pollution, the report called for stronger regional cooperation. It highlighted that most of the lower middle-income countries in Southeast Asia are already struggling with their own plastic waste. But these are also burdened by plastic leaking from other nations.
In fact, more than half of the coastal plastic waste from China and wealthier ASEAN countries ends up on the shores of poorer ASEAN nations like Indonesia. These waste flows don’t stop there — they extend across the Indian Ocean, reaching countries along the southeastern coast of Africa as well.
It also raises alarm over the threat to climate due to plastics. In the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region, greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic lifecycle — including production and waste management — are projected to nearly double from 0.6 GtCO2e in 2022 to over 1 GtCO2e in 2050, mainly driven by continued demand for primary plastic production.
The report warned that without stronger and more effective policies, the climate impact of plastics will worsen — further accelerating global warming.
With the final round of UN negotiations on a global plastics treaty scheduled from August 5-14, 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland, the OECD report comes at a crucial moment. It outlined a clear path for Southeast and East Asia to tackle plastic pollution and shows how the region can lead by example globally.
The report urged countries to take bold action—phase out single-use plastics, strengthen waste collection, and invest in recycling systems. Most importantly, it stressed the need for regional cooperation, as plastic pollution crosses borders.
“Southeast and East Asia can become a global model for tackling plastic pollution and advancing circular economy solutions,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “With stronger regional cooperation, ambitious policies, and targeted investments, the region could nearly eliminate plastic leakage by 2050 — bringing lasting benefits to people, ecosystems and the global economy,” he added.
Final summary: The OECD report warns that plastic use and waste in Southeast and East Asia could nearly double by 2050 without urgent policy changes. The ASEAN Plus Three region, including China, Japan, and South Korea, faces a significant challenge with plastic waste projected to rise from 113 million tonnes to 242 million tonnes. Mismanaged waste poses escalating risks to ecosystems, with plastic pollution threatening biodiversity and human wellbeing.