Unrelenting heat and the increasing water gap in India

The ever-increasing rise in heat each year disastrously affected an essential resource — water. According to an article titled Global Water Gaps Under Future Warming Levels, water gaps — the difference between renewable water availability and water consumption within a specific region — were projected to increase. Among the countries with the largest water gaps in terms of availability and demand, India ranked at the top.

The year 2024 was the warmest ever recorded in India since 1901 and its effects were visible. Heatwaves intensified and according to a report by Heat Watch titled Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heat Stroke Deaths in India in 2024, 733 people died across the country due to extreme heat. 

The persistent surge in heatwaves was expected to continue in 2025. On 22 January 2025, temperatures recorded a rise of 0.9 degrees Celsius compared to January of the previous year. By March, the India Meteorological Department reported in a press release on 6 March that temperatures were already 1°C to 3°C above normal in parts of North, Northwest and the western coast of India.

The goal of capping global temperature rise at 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as per the Paris Agreement, seemed increasingly unlikely. Vulnerable communities bore the brunt of the changing climate and water was one of the most affected resources.

The article published in Nature Communications, previously cited, highlighted current and projected water gaps under 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios. The baseline global water gap stood at 457.9 cubic kilometre per year. Under 1.5°C warming, it was projected to increase by 26.5 cubic km per year and under 3°C warming, by 67.4 cubic km per year.

Under baseline climate conditions, the largest water gaps were found in India (24.3 cubic km per year), the United States (53.8 cubic km), Pakistan (35.8 cubic km), Iran (35 cubic km) and China (27.2 cubic km). India was projected to experience the most significant increase in water gaps under warming scenarios. 

In a 1.5°C warmer climate, India’s water gap was expected to rise by an additional 11.1 cubic km per year. The largest water gaps under baseline climate conditions were found in the Ganga-Brahmaputra basin (56.1 cubic km per year) and the Sabarmati basin (52.6 cubic km per year).

To counteract this uneven development caused by climate change, policies needed to be designed to ease the pressure on vulnerable communities. The Government of India's Jal Jeevan Mission aimed to address this issue by providing a functional tap in every household. According to the mission's December 2024 report, there was a positive increase in the number of households with tap water connections. As of December 31, 2024, the number stood at 154 million (154,021,333).

Sustainable water use was the only way forward. Protecting water assets such as ponds and lakes from encroachment was crucial and efforts to recharge water bodies needed to be ensured. The government’s initiatives for groundwater recharge painted an optimistic picture of the future. 

According to an assessment report for 2024 by the Union  Ministry of Jal Shakti, total annual groundwater recharge increased by 15 billion cubic metres, while extraction declined by 3 billion cubic metres compared to the 2017 assessment. Recharge from tanks and ponds also showed a consistent increase over the last five assessments.