High returns, slow uptake: Why climate-resilient rice is yet to take off

A farmer could gain Rs 17,540-47,160 per hectare by adopting different groups of climate-resilient rice varieties, yet their adoption remained sporadic and limited, according to a recent analysis by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). 

The returns were the highest for drought-tolerant varieties, followed by aerobic varieties, salinity-tolerant varieties, submergence-tolerant varieties, biotic stress-tolerant varieties and ones that are both drought- and submergence-tolerant. This benefit, the study estimated, was inclusive of mean yield effect and downside risk-reduction during the stress conditions which disproportionately affect smallholders. 

The study Economic Evaluation of Climate Resilient Rice Varieties published by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, evaluated 21 climate resilient rice varieties (CRV) being cultivated on around 3.82-million-hectare area (7.9 per cent of total rice area).

Overall, CRVs could generate an economic surplus of more than Rs 2.11 lakh crore by 2030. These gains — equivalent to nearly Rs 10,774 crore annually — stemmed largely from higher and more stable yields. However, despite the availability of nearly 100 climate-resilient rice varieties, only about 10 per cent of India’s rice area is currently under such cultivation, pointing to a persistent gap between research output and field-level uptake.

Rice is central to India’s food security and rural economy, covering nearly a quarter of the country’s cropped area and supporting millions of livelihoods. It accounts for a major share of public procurement and household food consumption, making production stability critical for market prices and inflation. 

However, rice cultivation is increasingly exposed to climate stress. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are intensifying droughts, floods and heat stress across major growing regions. Under the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture programme, about 40 per cent of districts have been classified as highly vulnerable to climate change, with large parts of the net sown area prone to drought and flooding. In this context, CRVs, designed to withstand multiple stresses, have been seen as a key adaptation tool, offering higher average yields and greater protection against climate shocks.

Economic benefits

Drought-tolerant varieties, particularly in Jharkhand and Odisha, accounted for the largest share of projected benefits, with an estimated aggregate surplus of over Rs 1.08 lakh crore up to 2030. These varieties generated substantial gains for both producers and consumers, while helping stabilise supply and contain price volatility in water-scarce regions. 

“This is especially important in 32 semi-arid and rainfed areas where production volatility translates directly into food insecurity and rural income instability,” the study said. 

Similarly, submergence-tolerant varieties cultivated in flood-prone regions such as Assam and Odisha were found to generate a potential economic surplus of nearly Rs 79,837 crore up to 2030, equivalent to about Rs 3,842 crore annually. These varieties were capable of surviving up to 14 days under water, allowing crops to recover after flash floods that have become more frequent with changing monsoon patterns. 

In regions facing multiple and overlapping climate risks, including Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, the adoption of varieties tolerant to both drought and submergence delivered more modest but economically meaningful gains, at around Rs 6,213 crore, the analysis found. 

This reflected the importance of dual stress varieties in areas where farmers contend with alternating spells of drought and flooding. 

The analysis also highlighted the role of specialised varieties in addressing emerging environmental pressures. Salinity-tolerant rice generated an estimated surplus of over Rs 3,043 crore in coastal regions such as Odisha, where rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion have been threatening soil productivity. 

Aerobic rice varieties, developed for water-scarce and low-input systems, contributed more than Rs 10,622 crore in economic gains, reflecting their growing relevance amid groundwater depletion. Meanwhile, biotic stress-tolerant varieties yielded a surplus of nearly Rs 2,929 crore, offering income stability in the face of rising pest and disease pressures linked to climate change.

Risk reduction 

In addition to the productivity gains, the total risk-reduction benefit of Rs 10,672 crore highlighted the stabilising role of CRVs, especially for smallholder farmers whose livelihoods are most vulnerable to production shocks.

Drought-tolerant varieties in Jharkhand and Odisha delivered an estimated Rs 4,913 crore in risk-reduction. This underscored the chronic neglect of rainfed regions in India’s irrigation-centric policy architecture, the report said. 

Similarly, yield stabilisation benefits due to submergence-tolerant varieties in Assam and Odisha was Rs 4,474 crore. 

Why adoption remains low

Despite the strong economic returns, the study found that adoption patterns remained uneven and concentrated around a few well-known varieties. Drought- and submergence-tolerant varieties such as Sahabhagi Dhan and Swarna Sub1 dominated current diffusion, with nearly 1.66 million hectares (3.5 per cent of total rice area) each. In contrast, other submergence-tolerant varieties like CR Dhan 505 and Varsha Dhan showed more moderate diffusion, with cultivation areas of around 73,000 and 62,000 hectares, respectively.

The study found that in many cases, farmers were cautious in adopting new varieties, testing them on small plots and relying on peer experience before scaling up, which slowed wider uptake. 

At the same time, even when farmers showed interest, adoption was limited because of supply-side constraints and structural weakness in seed systems. 

The authors of the report noted how drought-tolerant Sahbhagi Dhan was widely praised, yet adoption collapsed in several districts after Cyclone Titli (October 2019) destroyed local seed stocks because formal markets were absent and farmers could not access replacement seed. 

The ICAR study acknowledged that even for salinity-tolerant varieties, the seed availability remained limited, fragmented and overly dependent on temporary civil society or institutional research projects. 

“In saline pockets of Odisha and the Sundarbans farmers reverted to traditional varieties not because improved lines underperform, but because they are not regularly available. Aerobic rice faces even more entrenched supply-side constraints. Farmers require new machinery, weed management protocols and herbicides — raising transaction costs far beyond seed access. The technology feels riskier, more complex and more labour-intensive, nullifying its theoretical benefits,” it said.