Kenya recorded its seventh warmest year in 36 years in 2025, continuing a steady warming trend
Temperatures have risen by about 0.22°C per decade since 1991, with December 2025 the hottest month
Uneven rainfall and extreme weather hit crops, water systems and public health
2026 forecast warns of above-normal heat, erratic rains and a likely El Niño
Rising risks of floods, drought, disease outbreaks and food insecurity prompt calls for urgent investment
In 2025, Kenya experienced its seventh warmest year in 36 years, extending a long-term warming trend that is reshaping weather patterns, food systems and public health.
According to the State of the Climate Kenya 2025 report published by Kenya Meteorological Department, the country’s average temperature has been rising steadily since 1991 at a rate of about 0.22°C per decade, with warming becoming more pronounced after 2005. December 2025 was the hottest month of the year.
The report was officially released on March 23, 2026 by Environment and Climate Change Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa to mark World Meteorological Day.
The year began slightly warmer than usual, with temperatures 0-1 degrees Celsius (°C) above average in January, rising to more than 1.5°C by February. Temperatures rose steadily towards the end of the MAM season across most parts of the country, with western Kenya experiencing particularly above-normal conditions, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department.
Even during June-July-August (JJA), typically the cooler season, temperatures remained above normal, rising by around 0.5°C to over 1.5°C in June and July. This had implications for agriculture and increased water demand.
From September to December, temperatures stayed consistently above average nationwide. Western and northern regions were especially warm in September, while most areas recorded steady warming between October and December, with temperatures rising by around 1°C to 1.5°C.
December stood out as the hottest month of the year, with eastern and southern regions experiencing particularly intense heat.
Rainfall patterns were uneven throughout the year. While western and central highlands received above-normal rainfall, most other regions experienced drier-than-average conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas (ASAL), the report said.
This variability had an impact on agriculture and water resources in ASAL. Maize and bean production fell by 21-35 per cent, driven by a combination of drought conditions, fall armyworm infestations, high input costs, uncertified seeds and an early end to rains. Flooding in lowland areas further damaged crops.
Although irrigated farming expanded and sorghum production rose by 49 per cent, tomato production dropped by 39 per cent due to pests such as Tuta absoluta and limited water availability.
Flooding also reduced bean and vegetable yields, cutting maize stocks by 37 per cent and increasing reliance on markets, leaving small farmers in ASAL vulnerable to price shocks.
Health risks also intensified. Extreme weather conditions and climate-linked diseases, including cholera and visceral leishmaniasis, became more widespread.
The country experienced four major types of extreme weather in 2025: extreme heat (January-February), extreme cold (June-August), heavy rainfall events (March-May and October-December), and strong coastal winds.
Flooding led to water contamination and displacement, while drought conditions weakened water security and nutrition, placing additional strain on health systems.
The report warns that 2026 is likely to bring above-average temperatures and uneven rainfall, increasing the risks of heat stress, floods and landslides.
For instance, temperatures during the March-April-May season are expected to remain consistently above average, particularly across the Lake Victoria Basin, coastal regions and northern Kenya, the report said. Rainfall, however, is likely to be uneven, with western and highland areas forecast to receive normal to above-normal precipitation, raising the risk of flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage and supply chain disruptions.
The warning comes as western Kenya is already being battered by flash floods, with at least 88 people reported dead and thousands displaced.
The livestock sector may benefit from improved pasture conditions and reduced conflict over grazing land, but could also face disease outbreaks and a potential oversupply of milk, the report underlined.
Environmental risks include an increased likelihood of forest fires, biodiversity loss in drier regions, and deforestation linked to pressure on natural resources.
During the June-July-August period, typically the coolest and driest season, tourism and wildlife viewing, including the Great Migration, may continue. However, water shortages in pastoral areas could increase reliance on boreholes, heighten the risk of human-wildlife conflict and reduce productivity in rain-fed agriculture.
Towards the latter half of the year, there is a 58-61 per cent probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and December.
The report estimates that at least KES 57.31 billion (about $456.63m) will be required between February and July 2026 to address climate-related impacts.
This includes funding for food assistance (KES 30.18 billion), livestock support (KES 3.43 billion), water infrastructure (KES 5.54 billion), health and nutrition (KES 9.98 billion), and agricultural inputs and pest control (KES 2.59 billion).
It also highlights the importance of early warning systems and calls for stronger investment in climate services, ecosystem protection and climate finance to improve resilience.
In wetter regions, the report recommends improved forecasting, stronger infrastructure and disease monitoring, alongside better use of surplus production. In drier areas, it calls for drought-resistant crops, water harvesting, conflict management and diversified livelihoods to strengthen food security and reduce displacement.