El Niño could cause $11 trillion in global income losses over the next five to six years, according to a new IFAD report released at COP31.
The 2026–27 El Niño could peak between October 2026 and January 2027, with lasting impacts on agricultural production and rural livelihoods.
Southern Africa faces heightened drought risks, while rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia are also vulnerable.
An additional 49 million people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to World Food Programme estimates cited in the report.
Combining support for agricultural inputs, market access and finance could reduce farmers' income losses by 18.7%, compared with 9.8% through financial interventions alone.
The global economic impact of El Niño could reach $11 trillion in lost income over the next five to six years, with lasting consequences for food security and rural livelihoods, according to a new report released on the opening day of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Antalya, Türkiye.
The report, Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile, published on November 9, 2026 by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, examines how overlapping climate and economic shocks threaten small-scale farmers and food systems.
It estimates that the 2026-27 El Niño could peak between October 2026 and January 2027, although its effects on agricultural production and rural livelihoods may persist through 2027 and beyond.
The report identifies three major concerns: El Niño is developing against a backdrop of rising global temperatures, follows the 2026 energy price shock linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and threatens regions already experiencing climate stress.
“In 2026 alone, global energy and fertilizer shocks rippled through entire food systems within a single planting season,” said an IFAD press release, noting that higher production, processing and transport costs particularly affected small-scale farmers, who produce a third of the world's food.
The report warns that drought and rising fertiliser and energy prices could simultaneously increase farming costs and reduce crop yields, while disruptions to transport, markets and finance could worsen losses.
In southern Africa, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe face a probability exceeding 50 per cent of agricultural drought between October 2026 and March 2027, threatening maize production, pasture and water availability.
Rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia are also vulnerable.
The report notes that the 2015-16 El Niño reduced regional rice production by 15 million tonnes, with the Philippines recording an 11 per cent decline. Cotton, soybean and wheat production could also be affected by changing rainfall patterns.
Citing World Food Programme estimates, the report warns that an additional 49 million people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
IFAD’s modelling examines how drought and rising input costs interact to affect the incomes of individual small-scale farmers.
It finds that financial measures such as insurance alone could reduce farm-income losses by 9.8 per cent. However, combining support for agricultural inputs, market access and finance could reduce losses by 18.7 per cent.
IFAD President Alvaro Lario in a press note said resilience could not be achieved through isolated interventions. “Resilience is not built by investing in single interventions, but by connecting investments in inputs, markets and finance so that gains in one area are not lost in another,” he said.
According to Lario, IFAD investments combining these approaches have increased incomes by more than 40 per cent, with nearly all participating households reporting gains and technology adoption rising by three-quarters.
The report urges governments, investors and development partners to address climate and economic shocks together, ensuring farmers can maintain production, access markets and secure finance to manage risks and recover from losses.
Türkiye’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Ibrahim Yumakli, in a press release emphasised the importance of preparing before crises occur. “Farmers’ resilience is determined by the steps taken beforehand: access to water, affordable inputs, finance and insurance and reliable links to markets,” he said. “When these elements move together, food producers stand far stronger in the face of shocks.”