The month of May 2026 could be much cooler than expected for many parts of India due to widespread rainfall across the country though some regions could also suffer from heat waves, according to the latest update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). “During May 2026, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country,” said IMD in a press release.
This comes after March and April were also not as warm as expected, mainly because of the activity of western disturbances and other weather systems that caused rainfall.
Temperatures in many parts of southern India and some parts of Northeast and northwest India could be above normal. The nighttime temperatures during May could be higher than normal for many parts of the country. Some regions such as the foothills of the Himalayas, eastern coastal states, Gujarat and Maharashtra could also suffer from above normal number of heat wave days, according to IMD.
“The rainfall during May 2026 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal,” according to the IMD. The weather agency predicted that the rainfall could be 110 per cent of the long period average. In some parts of east, Northeast and east central India rainfall could be below normal in May.
IMD also highlighted that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are evolving towards warmer than normal El Niño conditions. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had earlier indicated that the El Niño could set in as early as May-July 2026.
Many climate scientists are expecting the upcoming El Niño to be a super event with wide ranging impacts on temperatures, rainfall and extreme weather events in the regions which get impacted by the phenomenon.
According to IMD’s latest estimates the El Niño could develop during the southwest monsoon season which the department has factored into its long-range forecast for the season. IMD expects southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 to be 92 per cent of the long period average which would classify it as a below normal season.