The much-awaited southwest monsoon (SWM) season arrived over south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16 and is scheduled to arrive over Kerala by May 26, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
“Southwest monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Arabian Sea, southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal, many parts of Andaman Sea, entire Nicobar Islands and some parts of Andaman Islands including Sri Vijaya Puram today, the 16th May 2026. The Northern Limit of Monsoon passes through 5°N/75°E, 6°N/79°E, 8°N/85°E, 10.5°N/90°E, 13.5°N/95°E, and 15.5°N/98°E,” the IMD announced in a statement on May 16, 2026.
This would be an early arrival of the SWM over India as the normal date for monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1, according to IMD. In the past six years, the SWM has arrived earlier than its normal date on three occasions in 2025 (May 24), 2024 (May 30) and 2022 (May 29). The SWM was late by a week in 2023 as it arrived on June 8 and by two days in 2021 (June 3). In 2020, the monsoon winds arrived on the normal date of June 1.
The SWM is the primary rainfall season for most of India, except the extreme southeast India where the northeast monsoon during October to December is more dominant. The monsoon winds have a tough time ahead in the country with a spectre of a super El Niño hanging on them.
El Niño is the warmer than normal phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. During this phase, rainfall during the SWM is generally suppressed. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on April 24 that El Niño could occur as early as May to July.
The latest update from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on May 14 puts the possibility of El Niño emergence at 82 per cent in May to July and there is a 96 per cent chance of it continuing till December 2026 to February 2027.
Many climate scientists and weather agencies believe that the upcoming El Niño event in 2026 could be very strong or colloquially called a super El Niño but things would become clearer in the following weeks as we cross the spring predictability barrier.
During the Northern Hemisphere spring season, which is ongoing, the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are weaker than normal which makes it challenging for weather models to predict weather conditions in the following months, including the El Niño. A stronger event could mean much stronger impacts, which for India would mean even greater decrease in seasonal rainfall.
The IMD has already indicated the possible influence of the El Niño on monsoon rainfall. In a press conference on April 13, the weather agency predicted a below normal SWM for India with seasonal rainfall of 92 per cent of the long period average. IMD also indicated in its press release that there was 35 per cent chance of a deficient season which could lead to drought-like conditions in many regions of the country.
This could be devastating for more than 60 per cent farmers in India who are still dependent on the monsoon rains for their sowing and other agricultural activities. There is also the risk of drought or drought-like conditions in many regions such as the in Indo-Gangetic Plain, which has been undergoing long-term drying for many years now.