Summer from February? First 15 days see temperatures soaring across India

It has been only 15 days into February, but it feels like summer is already here. Temperatures in several cities across India have remained above normal during this period, which is traditionally regarded as a winter month in the country. 

An analysis done by Down To Earth of temperature data from 36 cities (capital cities and major urban centres) across 28 states and eight Union territories (UT) revealed that maximum daytime temperatures have exceeded normal levels in the first 15 days in 27 of these 36 cities.

Notably, night temperatures, or minimum temperatures, have also been elevated, with 20 states reporting above-normal night-time temperatures for at least 10 out of the first 15 days. 

For the analysis, in instances where data for the capital city was unavailable, temperature data from one of the largest cities in that state was used. In case of Haryana and Punjab, data from Hisar and Ludhiana, respectively, was taken, while separately analysing temperature data for Chandigarh. Additionally, for Jammu and Kashmir, data from both capital cities, Jammu and Srinagar was included.

In five cities — Ahmedabad, Dehradun, Guwahati, Imphal, and Raipur — maximum temperatures remained above normal for all 15 days, while four cities — Mumbai, Diu, Patan, and Ahmedabad — recorded minimum temperatures above normal throughout the same period.

In North India, the unseasonal high temperatures were particularly pronounced, with 15 out of the 27 cities reporting elevated maximum and minimum temperatures. This region, typically known for its cold winters, was experiencing a significant departure from seasonal norms. Cities such as New Delhi, Jaipur, Jammu, Hisar, Ludhiana, Lucknow and Chandigarh have recorded maximum and night-time temperatures several degrees above average for this time of year, often exceeding 25 degrees Celsius.

For instance, in New Delhi, day-time temperature was 4.1 degrees higher than normal for this time of the year on February 15. In Ludhiana, while maximum temperature was 4.4 degrees above normal, minimum temperature was 3 degrees above normal on February 15. 

This unusual warmth extended to several Himalayan towns, including Shimla, Leh, Srinagar, Imphal, Dehradun, Shillong and Agartala. In Srinagar, the maximum temperature reached an astonishing 7.8°C above normal, while Shimla recorded temperatures 4.8°C higher than the seasonal average on February 15. 

Many Himalayan states have been experiencing an unusually dry winter marked by a near absence of rain and snowfall.

The lack of winter precipitation, coupled with this spike in mercury, created a double whammy for agriculture and food security. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its monthly forecast for February, had said that the warm weather due to fewer and weaker western disturbances was expected to impact Rabi crops like wheat, forcing early maturity and subsequent yield reduction. In 2022, India’s staple wheat crop withered, following unprecedented March heatwaves during a critical late growth stage.

“Oilseeds and pulses such as mustard, chickpea, lentil and field pea may show early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, reduced seed size and lower yields. Warmer conditions may also favour rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests,” it said. 

Vegetable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage, and peas may also be adversely affected during critical stages like tuber initiation, bulb development, flowering and fruit setting. 

The forecast also warned that livestock and poultry might experience heat stress, resulting in reduced feed intake, decline in milk yield and egg production, and increased susceptibility to diseases if adequate cooling and hydration measures were not adopted.