A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have significant consequences for global trade and energy supply, according to a new analysis by international researchers. Not only the volume of trade at risk is critical, but also the duration of any disruption, the study found.
The study, “When the Strait Closes: Trade Dependencies and Shipping Disruption Scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz,” was conducted by the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, and TU Delft.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime chokepoints in the world. Around 20 per cent of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.
The analysis found that annual trade flows worth around $1.2 trillion from five Gulf countries (Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain) could be affected by a prolonged closure, a statement by Complexity Science Hub Vienna noted.
Most of these trade flows consist of energy products—crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and refined petroleum products—which together account for roughly $800 billion of the affected trade.
The researchers used an agent-based maritime transport model to simulate different blockage scenarios for the strait.
The key finding was that the duration of the disruption is the decisive factor.
· Up to two weeks: economic effects likely limited
· Around one month: noticeable disruptions in global shipping
· More than four weeks: disproportionately increasing impacts due to cascading effects in global supply chains
Delays affecting individual ships can propagate across multiple transport chains, causing congestion at ports and delays in international trade.
The European Union imports around $47 billion annually from the Gulf countries analysed in the study.
The countries most exposed include:
· Italy: about $9.8 billion per year, mainly LNG imports from Qatar
· Belgium: a major European gas and trading hub
· France, Germany, and the Netherlands: moderate levels of import dependence
The United Kingdom imports approximately $13 billion per year from these Gulf exporters.
The study concluded that short-term disruptions would mainly trigger price volatility.
Actual supply shortages would only become likely in the case of disruptions lasting several months. In such a scenario, rising energy prices and higher production costs could weaken the competitiveness of European industries.
“Our analysis highlights three key priorities for policymakers: First, every effort should be made to end potential blockades as quickly as possible to prevent cascading effects in global supply chains. Second, governments should prepare for longer disruptions, particularly in the energy sector. Third, clear and transparent communication is essential to avoid market panic and hoarding behavior,” said Stefan Thurner, President of the Complexity Science Hub and co-author of the study.