OPEC oil output rebounded in September 2026, driven by increased tanker operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq recorded their highest production levels of the year, offsetting disruptions from attacks on key pipelines.
However, rising tensions in the strait threaten future output, as oil companies grow cautious about shipping through the region.
Meanwhile, gas prices rise in Europe amid US-Ukraine tensions and expected winter demand.
Oil output from West Asian countries rebounded in September 2026 on the back of greater tanker movement from the Strait of Hormuz, according to information from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC).
According to an October 13, 2026 report in the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member-producer, has informed the cartel that it produced 8.4 million barrels a day in September. This is Saudi Arabia’s largest production since February, prior to the Israel-US attack on Iran.
With this expansion, Saudi Arabia was able to offset the decrease in shipping from Yanbu, a Red Sea export hub whose pipeline was attacked on September 10, adds the article.
The report states that Saudi Arabia moved larger volumes of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in September by using more shuttle operations, with tankers transferring the fuel to other vessels stationed off the coasts of the UAE and Oman for further shipping.
However, the article warns that a larger revival of OPEC oil output is threatened by an increase in tensions in the Strait of Hormuz this month. Citing data with the UK Maritime Trade Operations, Financial Times noted 19 attacks on either side of the strait so far in October, compared to 16 in September. These incidents have led to some oil companies avoiding sending ships through the strait or loading from shuttle ships in the Gulf of Oman.
Similarly, OPEC’s second-largest member, Iraq, also recorded its highest output for 2026 in September, producing 4.4 million barrels a day, according to information released to the cartel.
Meanwhile on October 13, European benchmark gas prices hit their highest level in four years on the back of increased US-Ukraine tensions over Russian diesel and cold weather forecasts in Central Europe.
According to Financial Times, Dutch TTF gas futures rose for a sixth straight day to €87.20 per megawatt hour, their highest level since before the US-Israel-Iran war.
This came two days after US President Donald Trump posted on social media that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire”, following a deal announced two days earlier to import Russian diesel. On October 12, however, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Kyiv would continue targeting Russian oil refineries.
The price rise also comes as colder weather across Europe is expected to raise demand for heating this month, at a time when gas storage levels are less than 74 per cent, compared with the usual 90 per cent during this period.
Expecting the price rise to continue, oil and gas giants such as BP expect a drop in debt levels, and have already announced plans to lay out fresh strategies in December.