COP31’s proposed 35-by-35 pledge aims to raise electricity’s share of global final energy demand to at least 35% by 2035, nearly quadrupling the pace of electrification since 2010.
For the Global South, electrification offers an opportunity to bypass fossil fuel-dependent development, strengthen energy security and reduce pollution.
But high borrowing costs, infrastructure gaps and dependence on imported technologies threaten to slow progress.
The pledge’s success will depend on affordable climate finance, technology transfer and support for domestic manufacturing.
The Turkish Presidency of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has proposed a global 35-by-35 electrification pledge, which is emerging as one of the headline announcements ahead of next week’s climate change conference.
The initiative aims to ensure that at least 35 per cent of global final energy demand is met by electricity by 2035, which would require a significant acceleration from today's estimated share of 20-23 per cent. Achieving the target would require expanding electrification at nearly four times the pace witnessed since 2010.
The ambition is significant, but what does it mean for the global energy transition, particularly for developing countries?
Electrification is not simply about replacing fossil fuels with electricity. It is also about using energy more efficiently. Electric drivetrains convert approximately 80-90 per cent of energy into motion, whereas conventional fuel combustion can waste 70-80 per cent of energy as heat. Electric motors, heat pumps and other technologies can therefore deliver substantially more useful energy from the same amount of input.
The benefits extend beyond efficiency. Electrification eliminates combustion at the point of use, reducing tailpipe emissions, indoor air pollution and other harmful pollutants. It can also strengthen energy security by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and exposure to volatile international fuel prices. When powered by clean electricity, electrification offers an opportunity to advance decarbonisation, public health and economic development simultaneously.
For developing countries, electrification presents an opportunity to leapfrog carbon-intensive development pathways rather than replicate them. While advanced economies face the challenge of transitioning away from established combustion-based infrastructure, emerging economies can avoid this fossil fuel lock-in in the first place.
Countries such as Ethiopia and Nepal are already pursuing electric mobility while leveraging their domestic hydropower resources. India, too, is seeing electrification gain momentum through electric mobility, renewable energy deployment, solar irrigation pumps and emerging efforts to electrify industrial processes.
However, scaling up these initiatives across transport, buildings, agriculture and industry will require substantial investment. Developing countries face higher borrowing costs, infrastructure deficits and institutional constraints. In India, for instance, the next phase of electrification will require significant investment in clean power generation, grid reinforcement, battery storage and end-use technologies. Unreliable electricity supply, financially stressed distribution companies and dependence on imported equipment further complicate the transition.
This is where the 35-by-35 ambition must confront the realities of development finance. A global target cannot translate into an additional financial burden for countries that already face significant constraints in mobilising capital.
Developing countries will need differentiated timelines, appropriate implementation pathways and predictable international support. Dedicated and transparent climate finance must accompany electrification commitments, including concessional capital, first-loss guarantees and mechanisms to reduce borrowing costs.
Technology transfer and support for domestic manufacturing will be equally important. Building local supply chains for electric two- and three-wheelers, public buses, solar pumps, batteries and other critical technologies can help countries capture the industrial and employment benefits of electrification rather than simply becoming dependent on imported equipment.
Governments must also redirect public expenditure towards grid infrastructure, electric public transport and clean end-use technologies, supported by appropriate fiscal measures and institutional reforms.
The 35-by-35 pledge could provide an important global signal for accelerating the transition towards cleaner, more efficient energy systems. It offers an opportunity to strengthen energy security, reduce pollution, create jobs and support new industrial pathways across the Global South.
But ambition alone will not deliver this transition. At COP31, the central question must be how global electrification targets can be matched with the finance, technology and institutional support needed to achieve them.
Electrification must not become an unfunded target or mandate. The success of 35-by-35 will ultimately depend not only on how much the world commits to electrify, but also on whether developing countries have the means to make it happen.