India ranks among the most vulnerable large economies to food insecurity as global temperatures rise
A new global index shows India’s food security score could fall sharply under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios
Climate-driven shocks are expected to affect food availability, affordability and nutritional quality
Study warns economic growth alone may not make food systems resilient to repeated climate stress
Rising temperatures could widen the gap between richer and poorer countries’ ability to secure food
India is among the large economies most at risk of worsening food insecurity as global temperatures rise, a new study has found, with projections showing a steady decline in access to adequate and nutritious food under warming scenarios.
The country is set to face a significant decline in food security as global temperatures rise, suggests a new study by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
The report places India’s position in a newly developed food security index among the most concerning. Its baseline score of 5.31 is well below the global average of 6.74 — and behind countries such as Brazil (6.72), Mexico (6.36) and Indonesia (5.87).
But the outlook worsens under warming scenarios. India’s score is projected to fall to 4.96 at 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) of global warming and further to 4.52 at 2°C.
The study measured how people around the world face being unable to buy good-quality food — or even enough food to survive — following repeated climate-driven shocks. The index assessed food security in 162 countries against four pillars: The availability of adequate food; its accessibility to households, including whether it is affordable; its nutritional value and whether people are healthy enough to absorb those nutrients, termed utilisation; and the sustainability, or resilience, of food supply systems.
At 1.5°C of warming above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) — a level the world is expected to reach soon — lower-income countries will begin to experience “serious dietary instability”. At 2°C, the situation deteriorates sharply, especially in poor and conflict-affected nations where food systems are already fragile. These countries were projected to see steep declines in food availability and dietary diversity.
The analysis showed that temperature increases will widen the already significant gap in food security between richer and poorer countries, with the sharpest declines expected in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Globally, about 4.56 billion people, nearly 59 per cent of humanity, already lives in countries that fall below the average score of 6.74. At 2°C of warming, an additional 291 million people could drop below that threshold, further increasing the number of people struggling to access sufficient and nutritious food.
Meanwhile, 3.19 billion people, or 41 per cent of the world’s population, currently live in countries scoring above the global average. Iceland scored highest at 9.26, followed by Denmark at 9.17, Austria at 9.15, Ireland at 9.13 and Belgium at 9.07. The lowest scores belonged to Afghanistan at 3.31, Madagascar at 3.15, Haiti at 2.57, the Democratic Republic of Congo at 2.51 and Somalia at 1.29.
“This research shows that, yet again, it’s the poorest countries with the least responsibility for climate change which will suffer its worst effects,” said Ritu Bharadwaj, IIED’s director of climate resilience, finance and loss and damage. “But crucially this work also provides tools for understanding the possible impacts and potential solutions in detail. Climate change is likely to worsen food security at least in the short term no matter what we do, but catastrophic declines in availability or nutritional value are not inevitable.”
Even wealthier nations are not insulated from the effects of climate-driven disruptions to farming, imports and supply chains. Among G7 countries, none rank in the top five globally (data for Japan was not available), and all are projected to see declines in food security under warming scenarios. The United States is expected to see one of the largest drops, while the United Kingdom is projected to experience comparatively smaller declines.
China, with a baseline score of 7.62, is also projected to see its food security fall to 7.06 under a 2°C warming scenario.
“Food supply problems in poorer countries will have knock-on implications for richer ones. For example, because of highly inter-dependent supply chains, climate instability in one major crop-producing region can create volatility elsewhere in the system,” said Bharadwaj.
One of the index’s most significant findings concerns the limits of economic growth as a buffer against climate disruption. Each additional $1,000 per capita of gross domestic products (GDP) translates, on average, to roughly 0.2 additional points on the food security scale.
However, this improvement was uneven across the four pillars, with much weaker gains in the sustainability of food systems. This suggests that while economic growth can improve access to food, it does not necessarily make food systems resilient to repeated climate shocks.