The Southwest Monsoon revived in early July driven by a Bay of Bengal depression that traversed central India.
This system sharply reduced the national rainfall deficit and turned shortages into surpluses in states like Odisha and Madhya Pradesh.
However, intense rains triggered flash floods and landslides in hilly regions.
More extreme events are likely as another western disturbance interacts with the monsoon.
Southwest Monsoon rainfall over many regions of India revived in the first week of July after a bleak June, aided by a depression from the Bay of Bengal traversing central region of the country. In some places, especially in the hilly and mountainous regions, the heavy to extremely heavy rains have also caused flash floods and landslides, such as in Kishtwar in Jammu & Kashmir on July 6, 2026 and Wayanad in Kerala the following day.
As of July 8, the movement of the remnant low pressure system towards northwest India, along with a western disturbance active over the region, could lead to more extreme rainfall, flash floods and landslide events.
The countrywide rainfall deficit came down from 38 per cent on June 30 to 15 per cent on July 8, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Central India experienced the largest swing in rainfall anomaly, from a deficit of 50 per cent to an excess of over four per cent.
In the northwestern region of the country, where monsoon onset occurred in the last days of June and first week of July, the deficit came down from over 31 per cent to 15 per cent between June 30 and July 8. Rainfall over east and northeast India has not recovered in this period and the regional deficit was around 39 per cent on July 8.
In the southern peninsula, where some regions such as the Western Ghats are receiving heavy rainfall, the deficit in rainfall decreased from close to 20 per cent on June 30 to over 14 per cent on July 8.
If observed rainfall data between July 1 and July 8 is considered, central India received 129 per cent excess rains in the week and northwest India received 16 per cent more rainfall than normal. The southern peninsular regions experienced only 5 per cent excess rainfall and east and northeast India suffered from a 44 per cent deficit in rainfall. Overall, India received 42 per cent excess rainfall in the period.
The monsoon season’s first low pressure area formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Odisha and West Bengal coasts on July 2, according to the IMD. On July 4, the system intensified into a well-marked low pressure area and further into a depression over the same region on July 5. By July 6, the rain-bearing depression had crossed the Odisha coast and lay over south Jharkhand and north interior Odisha.
Subsequently, the depression weakened into a well-marked low pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh in the early morning hours of July 7. On July 8, the system persisted over northwest Madhya Pradesh and southwest Uttar Pradesh.
All through its journey, the low pressure system caused heavy to extremely heavy rainfall, leading to the excesses over central India. Odisha went from a 39 per cent rainfall deficit on July 1 to 20 per cent excess rainfall on July 8. Chhattisgarh had received 59 per cent less rains than normal by July 1, which has now changed to a 10 per cent deficit. Madhya Pradesh went from a 28 per cent deficit to 5 per cent excess in a matter of a week.
The rainfall over northwest India was a combination of the advance of the monsoon winds over the region, along with the continuing presence of at least one western disturbance. Western disturbances are generally inactive so deep into the monsoon season, but in the last few years, especially in 2025, they have been frequently observed during the season.
The presence of a western disturbance along with active monsoon conditions, especially a low pressure area, could lead to heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over the plains, hills and mountains of northwest India. Consequently, the incessant rains could cause flash floods and landslides.
Despite this brief revival of the monsoon, the IMD expects July rainfall for most of India to be below normal, mainly because of the strengthening El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which generally suppress monsoon rainfall.