Kabul faces an imminent water crisis, with projections indicating it could become the first capital to run dry by 2030.
Over-extraction, climate change, and mismanagement have led to a drastic depletion of aquifers, threatening to displace millions.
The report highlights the urgent need for intervention to prevent a humanitarian disaster.
War, mismanagement, over-extraction, overpopulation and climate change could soon make Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, the first capital city in the world run dry in less than five years, a new report has warned.
The figures and statistics provided by the report are shocking. The city’s aquifer levels have plummeted 25-30 metres in the past decade, with extraction exceeding natural recharge by a staggering 44 million cubic metres annually. “If current trends continue, UNICEF projections indicate Kabul’s aquifers will run dry by 2030, potentially displacing 3 million residents,” said the report, titled Kabul’s water crisis: An inflection point for action.
Meanwhile, nearly half of Kabul’s boreholes—Kabul residents’ primary source of drinking water — are already dry, according to the United Nations. The analysis adds that over 120,000 unregulated bore wells—alongside hundreds of factories and greenhouses—are draining Kabul’s three main aquifers at nearly double the rate that they can be naturally replenished.
The city has grown from less than a million residents in 2001 to roughly six million residents in 2025. This has fundamentally transformed water demand patterns within Kabul, and drastically increased pressure on the city’s vital water resources.
And then, there is climate change, according to the report.
Afghanistan is highly prone to the vagaries of climate change. It suffered from a drought as recently as 2021-2024, in which 11 million people were impacted.
Part of the reason why Kabul’s aquifers are depleting is the decrease in precipitation across the country. ”Snow and glacier meltwater from the Hindu Kush mountains—the main source of Kabul’s groundwater recharge—is becoming more scarce every year, and Kabul’s groundwater levels have plummeted as a result. Between October 2023 to January 2024, Afghanistan received only 45 to 60 percent of the average precipitation during the peak winter season compared to previous years,” according to the study.
Most of the city’s groundwater — as high as 80 per cent — is now contaminated with sewage, toxins, and dangerously high levels of chemicals such as arsenic and nitrates. This, in turn, could severely affect the health of the children and the elderly.
“A lack of available clean drinking water has forced the closure of much needed schools and healthcare facilities across multiple suburbs of Kabul. For those without access to well water, the price of purchasing water has risen astronomically, placing additional economic stress on already struggling households,” noted the report.
The report notes that the current water infrastructure in the city is woefully under-equipped despite 40 years of international humanitarian intervention in Afghanistan.
“Decades of unregulated well-drilling have led to massive over-extraction and contamination of Kabul's aquifers, while critical surface-water reservoirs like Qargha Dam operate at significantly reduced capacity due to sedimentation and lack of maintenance,” it stated.
And then, there is the worsening political scenario.
The International Energy Agency’s isolation on the global stage since August 2021 froze $3 billion in international WASH funding, crippling everything from infrastructure maintenance to community water education programs.
The Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID has already had a catastrophic impact on humanitarian programing across the country, including vital WASH related programing in Kabul and its surrounding areas.
“Government funding shortfalls and a lack of private sector investment have also delayed critical water infrastructure projects like the Panjshir river pipeline and Shah Toot Dam, which, if completed, could help to alleviate Kabul’s water issues,” the document added.
It warned that without immediate intervention, the city “risked becoming the first modern capital in the world to fully deplete its water reserves — a disaster with far reaching humanitarian, political, and economic implications”.
“Kabul’s water crisis represents a failure of governance, humanitarian coordination, water regulation, and infrastructure planning. It is also a harbinger of climate-driven urban collapse, and the coming decade demands an unprecedented effort to increase Kabul’s aquifer recharge and political solutions to revive frozen aid pipelines,” concluded the report.