India could be in for more human-elephant encounters in the next four years, as pachyderm habitat is lost or becomes fragmented and rainfall patterns change, according to a new study.
The paper, Integrating Ecological Modelling and Local Knowledge to Understand Elephant Occurrence and Human–Elephant Interactions in the southern Western Ghats, analyses rainfall patterns, the presence of water bodies and land use changes from forest landscapes to agricultural fields to predict human-elephant interface from 2022 till 2030.
For this study, which was published in Environmental Management on July 10, 2026, scientists made use of 420 community interviews across the southern Indian states of Karnataka and Kerala, along with satellite land-cover maps and ecological modelling to understand where people report the presence of elephants in the southern Western Ghats. The Western Ghats, a UNESCO biodiversity hotspot, holds the largest population of wild Asian elephants.
“This paper focuses on the environmental drivers of reported elephant occurrence and the experiences of local communities that live in proximity to elephants in shared landscapes,” says Simran Prasad, the lead author of the study.
According to Prasad, the reported elephant occurrence in the study does not refer specifically to herds. Rather, it refers to locations where community members reported having directly interacted or encountered elephants, primarily through conflict-related interactions such as crop raids, property damage or physical encounters.
In India, land use and changes in land use continue to play a critical role in defining and determining human-wildlife interactions. Alongside rainfall discussed in the study, land use also played a mixed role in determining elephant occurrence. In Karnataka, reported elephant occurrence remained associated with settled areas, which suggest that the animals may continue to use moderately disturbed landscapes up to a threshold, the study says. In the state, areas of human settlement were positively associated with reported elephant presence that suggest that elephants continue to use landscapes close to people. “But it did not focus on the routes taken by elephants, nor their movement or behavioural patterns,” Prasad adds.
The study also sounds the much-needed caution. An assessment of land cover and land use change documented between 2012 and 2022 showed that landscapes are changing quickly. The land-cover mapping used in the study showed an increase in human settlements and a decline in dense vegetation in these ten years. For instance, in Karnataka, the area classified as ‘human settlement’ rose by about 31 per cent while dense vegetation declined slightly. In Kerala, the settlement area increased by roughly 16 per cent.
When the researchers projected these trends forward to 2030 four years from now, the modelled patterns of elephant occurrence became more fragmented and harder to predict. They caution that habitat loss and fragmentation could make elephant occurrence more fragmented and even difficult to predict, thus increasing the risk of human-elephant encounters which is already high across India.
The study also examines where people and elephants are most likely to overlap across the southern Western Ghats’ landscape and more importantly, how this may shift by 2030. It was led by Simran Prasad of the Centre for Wildlife Studies (CWS), Bengaluru and the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, and co-authored by Krithi K Karanth, CWS and the Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Vikram Aditya, CWS, and Jennifer Solomon of the Colorado State University.
India is already home to an estimated 22,446 elephants, which is about 70 per cent of the global population of wild Asian elephants. Of this, the Western Ghats has around 6,000 elephants. The landscape is shared by communities and wildlife together leading to encounters.
To understand the human-elephant interface, the authors conducted the interviews of 507 residents across four regions of Karnataka and Kerala: villages surrounding Bandipur and Nagarahole National Parks, and the Palakkad and Mannarkkad forest divisions. Most residents had lived in these places for over 40 years and thus have an intimate knowledge of their surroundings.
The authors noted that in both the states, rainfall emerged as the strongest environmental factor which was linked to reported elephant occurrence; that is the documented presence of elephants in a specific area. In the Western Ghats, with an elevation range of 300-2,700 metres, the mean annual rainfall ranges from 4000 to 6,000 millimetres.
A study published on April 25, 2025, talks about a decreasing trend of southwest monsoon rainfall in the southern part of the Western Ghats during the 20th century. Elephants, who move long distances for food and water, often modify their behaviour depending on climate, along with land use change and human activities. Rainfall patterns impact vegetation, and in turn, the movement of the animals.
Rainfall emerged as the single strongest environmental factor linked to reported elephant occurrence in both the states. The study notes that reported elephant occurrence increased with more rainfall and was higher when closer to protected areas and water bodies.
Water plays a huge role and impacts the movement pattern of elephants. The study says that distance to water bodies is associated with reported elephant occurrence, with elephants concentrated in those areas where water access is easier, especially in drier conditions.
In a story covered in 2025 by this reporter, it was reported how water scarcity, human-made ponds and land-use change is trapping herds in India’s most affected districts. It shows that when it comes to human-elephant conflict, water shapes the story, both its abundance as well as its absence. The rapid spread of farm ponds and the dominance of paddy fields draws elephants into human settlements, and traps them there leading to conflict.
In India, where most small-scale farmers depend on monsoon for the cultivation of crops, a good amount of rainfall means an assured and bumper harvest, though in recent times rainfall has become erratic and unpredictable due to climate change. However, adequate monsoon showers boost the cultivation of paddy, a staple crop grown widely due to assured minimum support price. It is favoured by elephants for food, leading to frequent raids in states like Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal. To discourage elephants, several farmers in North Bengal have turned to tea, betel nuts and bay leaves.
The study also mentions Chhattisgarh, the rice bowl of India where Hathi Mitras (friends of elephants) dedicatedly track elephants, warn people about their movement and send updates in Whatsapp groups created for the purpose. There has been a marked increase in croplands and built up areas in the state between 2000 and 2024, indicating that habitat fragmentation leads to conflicts. There have been 737 human deaths and 91 injuries in the state between 2000 and 2023.
Generally, forest edges are often considered high-conflict zones because they mark the transition between forest habitat and human-dominated land, including croplands, settlements and plantations. “Elephants moving along these edges can access both forest cover and available food sources like planted crops. This overlap zone is also where human activity is most concentrated, so the physical chance of encounter is potentially higher in these areas,” Prasad added.