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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Baku was the ‘finance COP.’ The headline outcome, the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance (NCQG) was US$300 bn per year, from developed to developing countries, by 2035. It was deemed a failure by the Global South and much of civil society, in terms of the quantity, as well as the nature of negotiations that led to it. What was also written into the decision text was the aspirational target of US $1.3 trillion per year, to be achieved by 2035, by a variety of actors. This was proposed to be achieved through a ‘Baku to Belem Roadmap to $ 1.3 tn’ (the Roadmap) to be created by the presidencies in time for COP30 in Belem.
The final report on the Roadmap is finally out, published on November 5, just ahead of the talks in Belem commencing on November 10. The report stems from consultations with civil society, Parties and non-Party finance experts. Two consultations were convened at the mid-year talks in Bonn, 227 written submissions (from parties, civil society and economists) as well as a report by the Presidency-constituted Circle of Finance Ministers have paved the way to the release of this report.
The Roadmap’s stated scope is to serve as a coherent reference framework that consolidates existing initiatives, concepts, and leverage points to scale up climate finance in the short to medium term. It outlines measures aimed at mobilising at least US $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries by 2035, without creating new mechanisms or prejudging the NCQG implementation by Parties.
The Roadmap acknowledges the gap between climate finance needs and flows, reasserts the need to ”integrate urgency [of scaling finance] as a fundamental pillar of all deliberations.”
In substance, the report covers three key components:
1. Actions needed on Finance - The 'Five Rs'
This section outlines five “action fronts” to scale up climate finance for developing countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans implementation, and sustainable development. These action fronts are presented as the ‘five Rs’, namely: Replenishing (grants, concessional and low-cost finance), Rechanneling (“transformative” private finance), Rebalancing (fiscal space and debt sustainability), Revamping (capacity and coordination for scaled climate portfolios), and Reshaping (systems for equitable capital flows), all towards achieving the USD 1.3 trillion goal.
A focus on adaptation finance, which is being identified as one of the central focus issues of the Presidency for COP30 as well, is mentioned. The report states, “The 5Rs recognize that strengthening adaptation finance lies at the heart of all efforts, ensuring that actions are guided by the urgent need to increase resources for resilience.”
2. Thematics to be prioritised
The second section of the report is organised around five thematic priorities, namely: financing adaptation and loss & damage; financing nature and its stewards; clean energy transitions; agriculture and food systems; and just transitions. Each illustrating how targeted investments can drive sustainable growth and shared prosperity. The section focuses on the quality and direction of finance, emphasising that the scale of investment in developing countries must be matched by strategic allocation across sectors, in line with countries’ national climate plans. It makes linkages between financing climate and sustainable development.
3. Short term practical steps to guide implementation
Finally, as has been requested by civil society throughout consultations, the report lists suggested practical next steps that ‘could’ be carried out by various actors for the period of 2026-2028 for implementation of the Roadmap.
This includes a Presidency-led establishment of an independent expert group to refine data and develop financing pathways based on the compilation in the report, with a first report due in October 2026. Alongside this, dialogues with Parties and stakeholders throughout the year to track progress are proposed. Additionally, the authors suggest that to enhance predictability, developed countries could present joint delivery plans outlining contributions toward the US$ 300 billion goal and other NCQG elements in their 2026 biennial communications. Based on this, the UNFCCC’s Standing Committee on Finance could compile an aggregated progress view by 2027, supported by a registry of “forward-looking information.”
Apart from the process-oriented suggestions above, the report lists 13 potential actions different stakeholders could take, including multilateral development banks (MDBs), credit rating agencies, the Financial Stability Board, the International Monetary Fund, the world’s largest companies and institutional investors, etc. Most suggestions draw on a familiar playbook of Special Drawing Rights reallocations, MDB capital reforms, debt swaps, and credit rating reviews, consolidating existing ideas rather than introducing new ones. With few measurable targets or enforcement mechanisms, the Roadmap risks remaining largely procedural, which lies within its own self-stated mandate.
The roadmap offers direction, but can it shift the needle?
The Roadmap acknowledges much of what developing countries have long called for: more grants and concessional public finance, a “reset” of the global financial system, alignment of debt, development, and climate agendas, and an inclusive process. Its stated aim of providing a coherent framework for collective action is met in form. Yet, for all the language in it about COP29’s NCQG outcome setting off a “new era of climate finance,” the prescriptions are hardly new. The world has been chasing the “billions to trillions” vision for financing development for many years, with many acknowledging success has been largely amiss. For climate finance too, new research suggests blended finance models have attracted 4-7 times lesser private finance for just energy transitions in the Global South than predicted.
Following the NCQG outcome last year, developing countries have been demanding a dedicated space to discuss Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which states that developed countries have an obligation to provide new, additional, public finance to developing countries for climate action. This demand stems from the lack of sufficient prioritisation of the provision goal, and a shirking of obligations by developed countries. This is expected to be a point of contention at COP30 as well. Against this backdrop, the Roadmap offers another document that mentions ‘all the right things’ in terms of better and more climate finance, but to what extent it will truly catalyse a significant scaling of funds remains to be seen.