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A new Climate Impact Lab report warns climate change will deepen global inequality, with rich countries expanding air conditioning while poorer nations face soaring heat-related deaths.
By 2050, temperature shifts could cause 430,000 extra deaths annually, 10 times more in poor countries.
Limited electricity access leaves millions trapped without cooling as extreme heat intensifies worldwide.
Climate change is likely to widen the gap between rich and poor countries, with wealthier people using more air conditioning while poorer communities face rising heat-related deaths, a new report has warned.
The report by the Climate Impact Lab says temperature changes linked to climate change could contribute to about 430,000 additional deaths each year by 2050, compared with historical conditions. It says 10 times more of those deaths are likely to occur in poorer countries than in richer ones.
The findings highlight the unequal ability of countries and communities to adapt to extreme heat. Cooling, particularly air conditioning, is already a crucial way to reduce the health risks of high temperatures. But the report says many of the places facing the most dangerous heat will also have the least access to reliable and affordable electricity.
“Air conditioning is a life saver,” said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago. But he said many countries would be unable to respond to rising temperatures in the same way as wealthier nations.
The report projects that electricity use for cooling will grow seven times more in middle-income countries than in low-income countries because of climate change. In low-income countries, the projected increase in electricity use per person would be enough to power only a single LED bulb for four months.
The report identifies areas in 18 countries, home to 676 million people, that face what it calls a “mortality-cooling trap”: high heat risk combined with very limited growth in electricity consumption. These areas are expected to account for about 377,000 heat-related deaths annually by 2050.
Most of these countries are in northern sub-Saharan Africa, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad. Others are in southern Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar.
The report contrasts Niger with Saudi Arabia, noting that both face high temperatures, but Saudi Arabia is far better placed to increase electricity use for cooling. By 2050, communities in Niger are projected to lose 27,000 more lives annually because of a warmer climate than Saudi Arabia.
Ashwin Rode, a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab, said the findings identified the places most at risk of heat deaths and least able to use air conditioning to protect people.
The report says improving electricity access will be essential, but not enough on its own. It calls for heat early warning systems, heat action plans, expanded healthcare, urban greening and targeted social protection programmes.
It also argues that electricity market reforms should be treated as part of climate adaptation, because reliable and affordable power will determine how many lives can be saved as temperatures rise.