COP31 consultations highlight critical climate issues, including the potential 1.5°C overshoot, a 35% electrification target by 2035, fossil fuel transition, and trade measures.
Parties emphasise the urgency of reducing emissions, enhancing resilience and addressing unilateral climate policies, while acknowledging differing national circumstances and development needs.
The Presidency's summary does not reflect consensus, emphasising the urgency of global action.
The potential overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature threshold, a proposed target to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035, the transition away from fossil fuels and concerns over unilateral climate-related trade measures are among the issues proposed for inclusion in the cover decision of the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31).
These issues feature in a summary of consultations released by the COP31 Joint Presidency of Türkiye and Australia on November 13, as the first week of the meet drew to an end. The summary of Parties’ reflections captures views expressed during informal consultations held on November 10 and 11.
The Presidency clarified that the document does not represent consensus among Parties or indicate the strength or prevalence of individual positions.
During COP31, countries have been discussing the scope of a proposed overarching political decision. Several have called for it to be concise, Party-driven and based on consensus, consistent with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. They have cautioned against reopening existing negotiations or creating new obligations beyond those already agreed.
The Presidency's summary records calls to acknowledge the likelihood of global temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5°C, minimise the magnitude and duration of overshoot and return to the threshold as soon as possible.
The urgency is underscored by the UN Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026, released on October 21. It finds that limiting peak warming to 1.7°C to 1.8°C by mid-century and returning to 1.5°C by 2100 would require global greenhouse gas emissions to decline by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, relative to 2025 levels.
By contrast, full implementation of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce emissions by only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035, leaving the world on track for 2.6°C of warming this century, the report finds.
Parties have called for stronger language on closing mitigation and adaptation gaps, improving resilience and responding to increasing climate impacts. They have also proposed recognising the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including completing its Seventh Assessment Report working group reports in time for the second Global Stocktake, a review mechanism under the Paris Agreement designed to measure collective global progress toward achieving climate goals.
Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), in its pre-COP31 assessment, has highlighted the need to consider climate science alongside equity and the differentiated responsibilities of countries.
The proposed global electrification target seeks to raise electricity's share of final energy consumption from around 23 per cent currently to 35 per cent by 2035. The Presidency's summary records support for accelerating electrification, renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity grids and storage, while recognising different national circumstances and development needs.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) September 2026 report on electrification, prepared at the request of Türkiye and Australia, finds that electricity demand has grown more than twice as fast as overall energy use since 2019.
At current technology costs, energy prices and financial conditions, about half of residential fuel consumption and half of oil-based road transport could be electrified competitively. Almost 40 per cent of fossil fuel-based low and medium-temperature industrial heat could also be electrified. Exploiting this potential would raise the global electrification rate to 33 per cent from 23 per cent in 2025.
The IEA's high electrification scenario reaches 35 per cent by 2035. It estimates that electrification could reduce oil imports in importing countries by 15 million barrels per day by 2035 compared with 2025.
However, differences in infrastructure, industrial structures, equipment costs and access to finance could constrain progress. CSE has also highlighted the challenges developing countries face from weaker electricity grids, financially stressed distribution utilities and higher borrowing costs.
The implementation of the first Global Stocktake's outcomes, particularly the call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and phaseout inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, has also featured in the consultations.
The Presidency's summary records proposals to recognise continued implementation of paragraphs 28 and 29 of the COP28 Global Stocktake decision. Paragraph 28 calls for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Paragraph 29 recognises that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.
The COP30 Presidency released an international roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels on November 3. The voluntary, non-prescriptive initiative seeks to identify actions across energy supply, demand and wider economic systems.
The UNEP emissions report also estimates that, under its lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway, the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply would need to decline by at least 55 per cent, 15 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, by 2035 compared with 2025.
Countries have additionally proposed addressing methane emissions through better monitoring, reducing venting and flaring, repairing leaks and tackling waste emissions. UNEP's Global Methane Status Report 2025 identifies the need for stronger implementation of available control measures to achieve the Global Methane Pledge's target of a 30 per cent reduction from 2020 levels by 2030.
The role of trade in climate action has emerged as another area of discussion. The Presidency's summary records proposals to address unilateral climate-related trade measures, consider their time-bound phaseout and reaffirm Article 3.5 of the UNFCCC, which states that climate measures should not constitute arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or disguised restrictions on international trade.
The issue has gained prominence amid the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which places a carbon cost on imports of certain emissions-intensive products. The UK also has a similar proposed mechanism set to come into force from January 1, 2027
The International Institute for Sustainable Development's State of Border Carbon Adjustments 2026 examines the trade implications of these mechanisms. It identifies growing tensions over their design, fairness and implications for developing countries.
The World Bank's State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026 finds that nearly 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions are covered by direct carbon pricing across 87 implemented policies. These mechanisms generated more than $107 billion in public revenue in 2025.
CSE has raised concerns that unilateral climate measures could impose additional costs on developing-country exporters and undermine their industrialisation priorities.
The Presidency's summary records a proposal for a dedicated mountain work programme to address gaps in capacity building and respond to the cumulative impacts of climate change, including glacial retreat and water scarcity.
The World Meteorological Organization's State of the Global Climate 2025 report, released in March 2026, confirmed that 2015-25 were the 11 hottest years on record. It also found that the ocean has absorbed an amount of heat equivalent to about 18 times annual human energy use each year over the past two decades.
Countries have also proposed recognising ocean-based solutions, nature-based solutions and forests, strengthening the ocean-climate dialogue and improving coordination across biodiversity, desertification and land-related conventions.
The final scope of the cover decision remains subject to further consultations during COP31, set to end on November 20. The Presidency's summary makes clear that the positions recorded are not agreed outcomes. The negotiations will need to identify areas of common ground while avoiding duplication of existing processes and additional obligations on Parties.