Subscribe
Extreme weather events is the most severe long-term threat to humanity, says WEF.
It particularly affects poor and developing countries.
While geopolitical & economic issues remain main risks in the short term, environmental risks dominate the long-term list.
Extreme weather events may no longer top the list of immediate global concerns, but they remain the single greatest long-term threat to humanity — especially for poor and developing countries with the least capacity to cope, warned the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026.
The report, which assesses global risks across three time horizons — immediate (2026), short-to-medium term (to 2028) and long term (to 2036) — reveals a reprioritisation of threats in the near future.
Extreme weather, which had been ranked as the first or second most significant risk over a two-year period for four years in a row, has now fallen to fourth place for the upcoming two years.
Pollution has also been moved down in the list, going from sixth place to ninth, while biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems have slid further down into the lower half of the list.
This shift reflects how geopolitical tensions and economic instability are overshadowing environmental concerns in the short term, the report noted. Over the next two years, non-environmental risks are expected to dominate policy attention, overtaking four key environmental threats: Extreme weather events, pollution, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems.
The outlook over the next decade, however, is very different. During this period, environmental risks overwhelmingly dominate the global risk landscape.
Extreme weather events rank as the top global risk through to 2036, followed closely by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and critical changes to Earth systems.
According to the report, five out of the top 10 long-term risks are environmental, highlighting what the WEF refers to as their 'existential' nature, which will be most intensely experienced in developing countries.
The lower priority being given to environmental risks in the short term comes at a time when scientific warnings are becoming more serious, experts wrote in the report citing United Nations findings.
As per the UN Emissions Gap Report 2025, the global temperatures are likely to cross the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels within the next 10 years. As a result, extreme heat, droughts, floods and wildfires are expected to become more frequent and more severe.
Despite this, global attention is shifting to other concerns. Growing geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and competition over resources have pushed issues like national security and energy security to the top of government agendas. The report points out that geoeconomic confrontation, which ranks as the biggest risk in the short term, falls sharply to 19th place over the next 10 years, even as environmental risks return to the top of the global risk list.
This gap between short-term political priorities and long-term environmental threats could be especially harmful for developing countries, which are the least prepared to deal with the impacts of climate change. Poor and middle-income countries face the highest costs from environmental risks, even though they have contributed the least to global environmental damage.
Weak infrastructure, scarce funds and limited ability to adapt mean climate and environmental shocks quickly result in severe impacts on lives and livelihoods in these countries, flagged WEF.
The report has especially warned about the effects of continued extreme weather and climate change on ageing infrastructure. From supply-chain chokepoints to strains on electrical grids, critical infrastructure requires renewed attention, with the current risks already playing out and affecting societies globally, it said.
Slow onset extreme weather, including long-term droughts, too, are threats to the infrastructure including the water and energy infrastructure. For instance, in 2023, Uruguay had to declare a state of emergency when reservoirs supplying its capital, Montevideo, almost dried up. Similar risks are emerging in countries that depend heavily on hydropower, including Morocco, Jordan, Iraq and parts of China.
Disruptions to system-imperative supply chains are also a significant risk stemming from extreme weather events affecting critical infrastructure. The researchers underlied this possibility, citing the Panama Canal drought of 2023–2024 and low water levels in Rhine and Danube rivers in 2018, 2022 and 2025 which disrupted crucial supply chains.
The authors also pointed to the growing problem of sinking cities, driven by overuse of groundwater, heavy construction and weak soil conditions, often worsened by extreme weather. Many such cities are in Asia and Africa. As the land sinks and sea levels rise, the urban poor living in low-lying and informal areas face frequent flooding, loss of homes and livelihoods and higher health risks.
Environmental shocks, including extreme weather events, are closely linked to existing challenges. They deepen poverty, food insecurity and social inequality, pushing vulnerable communities into greater distress.
At the same time, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse — ranked as the second biggest long-term global risk — undermine forests, fisheries and grasslands, directly affecting the food and incomes of millions of people, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The report warns that cooperation between countries on environmental issues is weakening at a time when it is needed the most. According to the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, cited by the WEF, major countries are giving more importance to national interests and short-term gains, instead of working together to deal with global environmental risks.
This decline in global cooperation is especially worrying for developing countries. Support in the form of climate finance, technology transfer and coordinated efforts to adapt to climate impacts is crucial to reduce their vulnerability.
Without this support, the long-term rise of environmental risks could lead to even greater global inequality, showed the report released ahead of the WEF Annual Meeting in Davos on the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue”.
