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The North Indian Ocean region is currently hyperactive with two cyclonic systems on either side of the Indian subcontinent. Cyclone Montha (pronounced Mon-Tha) in the Bay of Bengal has intensified faster than expected. The depression in the Arabian Sea (which formed on October 22) has neither dissipated nor intensified, with a possible track that could bring it towards the western coast of India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its latest tropical cyclone update (October 27, 12 noon) via SMS stated that “Cyclonic Storm Montha over SW (southwest) & adj (adjacent) WC (westcentral) Bay of Bengal moved NNW (north-northwestwards) at 18 kmph, 520 km ESE (east-southeast) of Chennai. Likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by 28 Oct morning, cross AP coast near Kakinada on 28 Oct evening/night.”
In its October 26 afternoon update for cyclone Montha via press release, IMD had stated that the system was at the intensity of a deep depression (a notch lower than a cyclone) at 8:30 am on October 26 and it would intensify into a cyclone in the following 24 hours. But the intensification of the deep depression into Cyclone Montha happened by the evening of October 26 itself.
Independent weather forecasters predict that the cyclone could intensify to a severe cyclone, and no further intensification is likely, a prediction made by the IMD as well. “Looking at the wind field, it is a low-grade cyclonic storm. It will intensify into a severe cyclonic storm,” Ashwary Tiwari, a meteorology enthusiast who runs the IndiaMetSky Weather profile on X told Down To Earth.
The IMD highlighted that there is intense convection to the northwest of the Cyclone Montha system area. It added that “there is large scale convection over the south and central Bay of Bengal suggesting large scale release of latent heat in the mid and upper tropospheric levels, which will support further intensification of the system.”
The weather agency predicted the maximum wind speeds of Cyclone Montha to be around 90-100 km/hr with gusts of wind of up to 110 km/hr on October 28 which would be categorised as a severe cyclone. IMD forecasts Cyclone Montha to make landfall near Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh in the evening/night hours of October 28 as a severe cyclone. The weather agency predicted the storm surge from the cyclone to be one metre above the astronomical tide level at the time of landfall which could inundate the low-lying areas of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam (Puducherry).
On the other side of the country, a cyclonic system has been loitering around since the morning of October 22, lately making turns in its tracks. The depression initially moved in the northwestward direction for a short while. After that, it made a turn towards the northeast, tracking in that direction for a day or so. It turned northwards on October 23 itself and then turned west on October 25. In the early morning hours of October 26 it turned southward, making a sharp turn northward in the late hours of the same day and early hours of October 27.
It is now on a track toward the Gujarat coast, if it doesn’t make any more abrupt turns, according to the Global Forecasting System data analysed and visualised on the Windy weather platform. The depression was situated 720 km south-southwest of Mumbai and 750 km west of Panjim in the morning of October 27. It is likely to move nearly northeastwards across the east-central Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours, according to the IMD. The Department has not put out any alerts with regarding to this depression for the western coast of India, especially Gujarat, as yet.