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Most countries are unlikely to meet the global 2030 targets for transforming their food systems, with greenhouse gas emissions, food insecurity and governance among areas where progress is lagging the most, according to a new study.
Published in the journal Nature Food, the study provides one of the most comprehensive assessments of global food systems to date.
The assessment, conducted by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, provides one of the most comprehensive evaluations of global food systems to date. It examines 197 countries using 44 indicators across five key areas — diets, nutrition and health; environment and natural resources; livelihoods, poverty and equity; governance; and resilience.
Unlike earlier assessments that mainly examined if conditions were improving or worsening, the study measured countries’ progress against specific targets and benchmarks. The researchers assessed where countries stood in 2015 and how quickly they would need to improve to meet 2030 and 2050 goals.
Food system greenhouse gas emissions represent one of the most serious challenges, the study noted. The global average remained 75 per cent away from the target, and no country is currently projected to meet the 2030 emissions target if progress continues at the present rate.
Overall, progress remained too slow across most indicators. Some areas showed only marginal improvement, while others stagnated or moved backwards. If current trends persist, many countries will also fail to meet several targets by 2050.
Five indicators — cropland change, rural unemployment and underemployment, food supply variability and mobile phone subscriptions — show comparatively stronger progress toward 2030 goals.
Europe and Asia were generally closer to global targets and benchmarks, while Africa and the Americas had the fewest indicators near desired levels. Tunisia emerged as the leading country in Africa, ranking closest to or meeting global targets and benchmarks for 16 indicators.
Food security was found to be another major concern. Most regions of the world would need dramatic annual changes to achieve the 2030 targets, according to the authors of the report. In Africa, for example, improvements of 15-20 per cent every year across 23 indicators would be needed to meet the 2030 targets. In Asia, food insecurity would have to decline by more than 63 per cent annually to reach the corresponding 2030 target, the findings showed.
Several indicators are also moving in the opposite direction globally, the researchers noted. These include civil society participation, government accountability, sales of ultra-processed foods, agricultural water withdrawals, pesticide use and emissions.
Despite these challenges, the study identifies some positive signs. At least a third of countries are already on track to achieve the 2030 target for seven of 33 indicators assessed for progress, while half of all indicators are moving globally in a desirable direction.
The researchers argue that regional and income-based benchmarks could provide a more achievable pathway for countries. The affordability of a healthy diet in Africa provides one example. While African countries, are on average 58.7 per cent away from the global benchmark for healthy-diet affordability, that gap falls to 32.2 per cent when their performance is compared with the average of the top-performing 20 per cent of African countries.
In contrast to Africa and the Americas, the Asian, European and Oceania regions generally had similar distances whether comparing to global or regional benchmarks, with a few exceptions.
The findings underlined the need for stronger policies, investment, innovation and accountability. Extending targets to 2050 could make some goals more achievable, but food insecurity and food-system emissions would still require exceptionally rapid and sustained progress.
Without a major acceleration in action, most countries are unlikely to achieve the food-system transformation needed to protect human health, livelihoods and the environment by 2030.
