The last stand: Assam’s forests face an environmental tipping point

The Living Planet Report 2024 revealed a sobering reality about the state of our planet and the statistics are alarming. Published every two years by the World Wide Fund for Nature, the report measures the average change in population sizes of more than 5,000 vertebrate species.

But why should we be concerned? According to the latest report, wildlife populations have declined by 73 per cent between 1970 and 2020.

Just two years ago, in the Living Planet Report 2022, the figure was 69 per cent, meaning we've lost an additional 4 per cent of the world’s wildlife. Isn't this cause for concern? Where are we heading? More worrying is that the rate of decline is accelerating.

Back in the Living Planet Report 2020, the loss was 68 per cent. This increase highlights a deepening crisis, one rooted in habitat destruction. At the heart of this destruction is deforestation, one of the primary causes of habitat fragmentation.

According to Global Forest Watch 2024, our planet lost 488 million hectares (Mha) of tree cover between 2001 and 2023, a 12 per cent decline since 2000. This forest loss is not only stripping away biodiversity but also driving climate change. Forests, which act as vital carbon sinks, are being destroyed, releasing vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. This accelerates global warming and leads to the collapse of ecosystems. 

Unfortunately, India is no stranger to this global trend of forest loss, according to the Global Forest Watch report. Between 2001 and 2023, India lost 2.33 Mha of forest, a 6 per cent decline. 

However, Assam stands out, which is why it’s crucial to bring these issues to the attention of the people of Assam. The state lost 324 thousand hectares (kha) of tree cover during this period, accounting for a shocking 14 per cent of global forest loss. This deforestation is not only eradicating iconic wildlife but also pushing Assam towards an environmental disaster.

Assam’s forests are more than just an ecological treasure; they are the lungs of the region. Between 2001 and 2023, Assam saw a 100 per cent reduction in relative tree cover. Most of this loss occurred in two regions — Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao — which together account for over 62 per cent of the state’s forest loss.

Karbi Anglong alone lost 119 kha of forest, well above the state average of 12 kha. This widespread deforestation is not only catastrophic for wildlife but also for the people who depend on the forests for food, medicine and climate protection. As forests disappear, so too does the buffer against rising temperatures and extreme weather events.

In recent years, Assam has experienced increasingly hot summers, unpredictable rainfall and more severe floods and droughts. Ironically, the loss of wetlands, drought and flooding in India are now considered critical tipping points in the Living Planet Report 2024. The forests that once cooled the land and absorbed carbon dioxide are vanishing, driving local temperatures higher and creating irregular weather patterns.

This does not just affect wildlife; it impacts communities. For example, elephants are being forced out of their shrinking habitats, often clashing with humans in search of food and water. This conflict is likely to become more frequent. A recent study suggested that India will be one of the global hotspots of human-wildlife conflict by 2070.

Are only forests affected? Not at all. The Living Planet Report 2024 highlighted an 85 per cent global decline in freshwater species and Assam is no exception. Pollution, deforestation and rising water temperatures are endangering the Brahmaputra River.

Yet, amidst this crisis, there is a rare glimmer of hope: after 75 years, the critically endangered Indian gharial was spotted in the Brahmaputra. Though the sighting offers hope, it won't lead to a recovery without immediate and sustained action.

Assam’s freshwater ecosystems are at risk of collapse, further endangering species like the Ganges River dolphin. Deforestation upstream is contributing heavily to soil erosion, leading to sediment build-up in rivers and degrading water quality. The clock is ticking: If Assam’s freshwater systems crash, the consequences will be devastating for both biodiversity and the millions who rely on these rivers.

The Northeast Indian state stands at a crossroads, but what can we do now? To halt deforestation, the state must take bold, immediate action. This begins with stronger enforcement of forest protection laws to curb illegal logging and encroachment. Expanding protected areas and promoting sustainable agroforestry can balance the needs of people with the demands of nature.

Furthermore, Assam’s climate adaptation strategies must prioritise reforesting degraded areas and investing in climate-resilient agriculture. By working closely with local communities, Assam can not only conserve its forests but also protect the ecosystems vital to its people’s survival.

The findings of the Living Planet Report 2024 and Global Forest Watch 2024 make one thing clear: Assam’s natural heritage is hanging in the balance. Protecting Assam’s forests and biodiversity is not just an option, it is a necessity.

The Kaziranga-Karbi Anglong landscape represents a critical tipping point for Assam. Tipping points are critical thresholds in ecological and climate systems beyond which small changes can lead to dramatic and often irreversible shifts.

We should also consider local tipping points equally vital to Assam’s ecological future. The Greater Manas landscape, already vulnerable to habitat fragmentation and Dehing Patkai National Park, one of Assam’s last remaining rainforests, are at risk of irreversible damage from human activity.

Additionally, the Dibru-Saikhowa Biosphere Reserve, a sensitive wetland ecosystem, faces threats from encroachment and industrial development. Each of these areas is hanging by a thread. 

Continued forest loss will not only devastate wildlife but also worsen Assam’s climate, potentially pushing it beyond the point of no return. The future of Assam’s environment is teetering on the edge and without immediate, large-scale action, the state's forests will be left in limbo. Restoring Assam’s forests, safeguarding its ecosystems and building a more resilient future must be prioritised before it’s too late.

Jyotish Ranjan Deka is PhD student, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States

Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth