Around 75% of overall greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 came from energy sector, while the industrial sector contributed to 8%
India’s net national emissions in 2019 increased 4.56 per cent since 2016 and 115 per cent since 1994. Photo for representation: iStock India submitted its Third National Communication (TNC) and Initial Adaptation Communication to the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2023.
India’s net national emissions in 2019 stood at 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), marking a 4.56 per cent increase from 2016 levels and a 115 per cent increase since 1994, according to TNC.
Carbon dioxide continues to remain the most emitted GHG, comprising 79 per cent of total emissions in 2019. Increased burning of fossil fuels, methane emissions from livestock and increasing aluminum and cement production are attributed to this.
The National Communication is a report prepared by Parties in line with articles 4 and 12 of the convention. It includes:
TNC contains all-India emissions data up to 2019, whereas India’s last submission (Third Biennial Update Report) had data until 2016. Global GHG emissions are the drivers of increasing planetary temperatures. Periodic analysis of emissions data is a crucial step for implementing the convention and progressing on tackling the climate crisis.
Source: CSE, Data from India’s TNC
Sectoral contributions from 1994-2019
Source: India’s TNC (Index 1994 = 100)
All sectors have shown growth in emissions between the two inventories of 2016 and 2019. The Land Use and Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF) sector reported an average rate of emission removals of 14 per cent, followed by 7 per cent average growth rate in Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) and 6 per cent in the energy sector.
Emissions from the waste sector fell at an average rate of 2 per cent in the four years. Excluding the LULUCF category from the total, (that is, not counting the sink), India’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 have increased by about 293 million tonnes of CO2e, or 10 per cent from the 2016 levels. The increase over four years has largely been driven by burning of fossil fuels particularly associated with the IPPU sector, which emitted a total of 264 million tonnes CO2e in 2019.
The energy sector has remained the highest contributor in India for over two decades, accounting for three fourths of total GHG emissions in 2019. Emissions from burning of fossil fuels for power generation make the bulk of these emissions, with 2019 seeing a 10 per cent rise since 2016.
According to the Central Electricity Authority, the total installed capacity of fossil-based power plants in India in 2023 was 237 gigawatts, comprising about 57 per cent of total power capacity of the country. As part of India’s updated climate commitments, the share of non-fossil capacity should be at least 50 per cent by 2030.
The submission also noted that India’s per-capita energy consumption in 2021-22 stood at about 24.45 gigajoules (GJ), significantly lower than the world average of 75.6 GJ for the same year.
The second most prominent culprit was the industrial processes and product use (IPPU) segment. Greenhouse gases accounted for in the category were emitted during a variety of industrial activities that transform raw materials by chemical or physical means. These include mineral industries (such as glass, quick lime production); chemical industries such as those involved in the production of ammonia and methanol; metal industries, among others.
In 2019, emissions from IPPU reached 263,540 GgCO2e, increasing by 16 per cent since 2016, mainly due to the increase in the production of cement, aluminium and lime. Cement production is considered a 'hard to abate' sector in addressing climate change. A slew of announcements at the 28th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Dubai centered on industrial decarbonisation, but the pace at which developing countries may be able to operationalise such efforts remains to be seen.
Despite a marginal decline in the share of total emissions from 14.4 per cent to 13.4 per cent between 2016 and 2019, the absolute emissions from the agricultural sector saw a 3.2 per cent increase, amounting to 420,968 gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent (GgCO2E). A potential decoupling of agricultural emissions from overall growth was indicated in the submission.
Agricultural activities primarily contributing to GHG emissions are animal husbandry and crop production. Major GHG (CH4 and N2O) emissions sources in the agriculture sector include methane produced during livestock’s enteric fermentation and rice cultivation, in addition to nitrous oxide emitted from manure management and agriculture soil.
As much as 53.03 per cent of greenhouse gases emanated from enteric fermentation, followed by 21 per cent from agricultural soils, 17.44 per cent from rice cultivation, 6.54 per cent from manure management and 1.99 per cent from field burning of agricultural residues in 2019.
Distribution of CO2E emissions across agriculture sector in 2019
Source: India’s TNC
GHG emissions from the waste sector accounted for 2.34 per cent in 2019, stemming from microbiological processes occurring in organic waste under anaerobic degradation as well as anaerobic treatment of domestic and industrial wastewater.
Emissions from the waste sector dipped by 2.72 per cent since 2016 to 73,189 GgCO2E. Nevertheless, waste management remains a challenge in India due to rapid urbanisation. 77.31 per cent of the emissions comprise of wastewater treatment and discharge, followed by 22.69 per cent of the solid waste disposal, the report stated.
The land use and land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) removed 20 per cent of India’s CO2 emissions in 2019. This resulted in the removal of 4,85,472 GgCO2E of emissions displaying an upturn of 58 per cent as a sink since 2016. Net sink in the LULUCF sector include forestland, cropland and settlements, while grasslands remained the only source land use category.
Cropland led to CO2 removal of 70.69 per cent, followed by 29.87 per cent by forest land and 1.44 per cent by settlements. However, wildfires affected the net balance of GHG emissions, contributing 1,459 GgCO2E, even though the total area affected by forest fire decreased by 30 per cent compared to 2016.
According to data from the Forest Survey of India (FSI), 2,050 incidents of forest fires have occurred between October 16, 2023 and January 16, 2024. Along with climatic variations and shift in long-term trends in precipitation and temperatures, forests are burning due to a lack of precipitation owing to climate change.
Total national emissions (including LULUCF) have increased by 4.56 per cent with respect to 2016. The FSI report suggested that there has been a slight increase overall of the area under forest cover, cropland, grassland, and settlements.
GHG emissions / removals from LULUCF, 2011-2019 (in MtCO2E)
Source: India’s TNC
India’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions are to be implemented over the period of 2021-2030, and they include:
Emissions intensity is the total GHG emission per unit of a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As per the current inventory, the emission intensity has reduced by 33 per cent between 2005 and 2019, indicating decoupling of India’s GDP from GHG emissions, and achievement of India’s previous emissions intensity target, states the submission.
Though India’s economy is growing rapidly, its energy intensity (or how much energy is used to generate wealth, reflected by the GDP), is declining, in line with global trends predicted by the International Energy Agency.
India’s present non-fossil installed capacity of electricity generation is over 41 per cent. It achieved its target of cumulative electrical power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources in 2021 — nine years ahead of 2030. Further, between 2005 and 2021, additional carbon sink of 1.97 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent has been created.
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