Facing a deepening El Niño and widespread drought, India’s agriculture ministry has lowered the 2026-27 foodgrain target to 373.93 million tonnes, with 177.72 million tonnes set for Rabi.
Maharashtra and Karnataka have sought central aid as over half the country faces dry conditions.
Authorities are steering farmers away from water-guzzling crops and promoting pulses, oilseeds and crop diversification.
Amid El-Niño conditions, which are likely to strengthen in the coming months, the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has set the country’s overall foodgrain production target for 2026-27 at 373.93 million tonnes, lower by 2.63 million tonnes, than the estimated output for 2025-26.
Out of the 373.93 million tonnes, the production target for the upcoming Rabi crop season was 177.72 million tonnes, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said while addressing a press conference on September 29, 2026.
“The targets have been determined by considering real time situations and taking into account factors such as water availability in reservoirs, soil moisture conditions, and by consulting states. These targets have come from the states. If we achieve this target, it will be a big achievement,” he said.
The government would seek to avoid water-intensive crops in areas that have received low rainfall and where reservoir levels and soil moisture are low and go for crops such as pulses and oilseeds in those regions, Chouhan added.
A day earlier, he had asked states and districts to prepare crop plans based on a “water budget”, particularly in rainfed areas.
The cautious target comes at the end of an unusually dry and uneven southwest monsoon season and as El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific.
The World Meteorological Organization has said El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to intensify in the coming months. Its latest forecasts indicate a nearly 100 per cent likelihood that the event will persist through February 2027.
India’s overall rainfall deficit narrowed to around 12 per cent by September 28, from about 15 per cent a week earlier. However, this national figure does not fully capture the severity of conditions on the ground in many agricultural regions.
Several areas received prolonged spells of deficient rainfall, while others saw intense rain over short periods, conditions that did little to compensate for earlier moisture stress and, in some cases, caused further crop damage.
The deficient and uneven monsoon has already translated into widespread drought conditions. Maharashtra has declared 265 of its 358 talukas drought-hit, covering nearly three-fourths of the state, while Karnataka has progressively expanded its list of drought-affected taluks during September.
The drought has affected major agricultural regions at a time when the kharif crop is nearing harvest and preparations for Rabi sowing are beginning.
Chouhan said both Karnataka and Maharashtra have sought assistance from the Centre. A central team will visit Karnataka on October 3, 2026 to carry out an assessment, while another team will be sent to Maharashtra, he said.
The drought extends well beyond the two states. According to Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar’s India Drought Monitor, around 52.5 per cent of the country’s area was under dry or drought conditions as of September 16, up sharply from 38.9 per cent about a month earlier.
Several states, including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, parts of Telangana, Rajasthan, and Punjab have been among the worst affected.
The stress was already visible in the kharif acreage. As of September 11, the total area under kharif crops stood at 109.65 million hectares, compared with 111.25 million hectares during the corresponding period last year, a decline of 1.6 million hectares, according to data by the agriculture ministry.
Rice accounted for much of the decline. Around 42.68 million hectares had been sown under paddy, nearly 1.7 million hectares less than at the same time last year. Karnataka recorded a decline of 454,000 hectares, Telangana 446,000 hectares, Andhra Pradesh 190,000 hectares, Madhya Pradesh 175,000 hectares, Tamil Nadu 140,000 hectares and Maharashtra 115,000 hectares.
Against this backdrop, the agriculture ministry has asked states to prepare district-level plans for the Rabi season, taking into account water availability, rainfall and weather forecasts, soil moisture and access to irrigation.
Besides, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research will conduct a district-level groundwater availability assessment as well, an official told Down To Earth. Based on these conditions, districts will have to assess not only which crops should be sown, but whether farmers need to shift from one crop to another and which varieties would be most suitable under prevailing conditions, the official said.
The exercise forms part of the government’s preparations under the Khet Bachao Abhiyan, which is being extended to the Rabi season. Chouhan said the campaign would run nationwide from October 22 to November 30, with a focus on soil health, scientific support to farmers and crop diversification, including encouraging pulses in areas left fallow after paddy.
At the same time, however, the minister maintained that the overall agricultural situation remained under control.
“There is no major crisis. There is a problem in some areas,” he said, pointing out that the countrywide rainfall deficit was around 12 per cent.
The minister was also optimistic about fertiliser availability and kharif harvest despite drought declarations and lower acreage in some crops.
“The kharif crop is good. I don’t think production will be less. In some places, it might be less, and in other places, it will be more,” Chouhan said.