This is the sixth of a 7-part series. Read the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth parts
Thirty-seven per cent of Punjab’s paddy has been damaged due to the 2025 floods in the state, an estimation by Down To Earth (DTE) has found.
The state’s total loss is around Rs 20,000 crore, according to Harchand Singh Barsat, chairman of the Punjab State Agriculture Marketing Board.
DTE calculated that the excess rainfall, floods and the consequent spread of false smut, a fungal disease across 121,405.693 hectares caused losses of Rs 7,500 crore.
In Ludhiana district’s Talwandi Kalan, Bikkar Singh inspects his paddy fields, and yellow spores resembling turmeric dust rise as he hits the stalks. His hands turn yellow from the grains. This situation is not limited to his fields.
DTE observed the presence of false smut in paddy over approximately 150 kilometres, from flood-affected Talwandi Kalan to Rara village in Hoshiarpur district. Farmers also reported scorching and other diseases in paddy spikes.
A situation report on false smut was published in April 1987, in Volume 12, Issue 2 of the International Rice Research Newsletter, relating to eastern Uttar Pradesh. It noted that scientists had studied false smut since 1975, finding it simultaneously in different locations and varieties.
The disease spreads rapidly especially during rainfall, when humidity exceeds 90 per cent and temperatures are around 20°C with consistent rainfall.
Between 1984 and 1986, it became epidemic, rising from 10 per cent damage in 1984 to 30 per cent in 1986, significantly affecting paddy fields. The report also noted that excessive nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertiliser increased vulnerability.
In Punjab, false smut in crops that escaped the floods could further increase damage. In many areas, water has not yet receded, and fields remain wet.
The estimated Rs 7,500 crore loss in paddy (Parmal and Basmati varieties) in Punjab is nearly equivalent to the annual average budget of the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) of around Rs 10,000 crore. NDRF is an additional central budget for extraordinary disasters each year.
In Punjab, paddy was sown over 3.25 million hectares, of which about 681,000 hectares were planted with Basmati. Based on farmers’ and agriculture department assessments, about 200,000 hectares (5 lakh acres) were completely destroyed, while other areas reported an average 10 per cent yield reduction.
A professor at Punjab Agricultural University, speaking anonymously, assisted DTE in this estimation.
For fully submerged fields, Parmal paddy’s average yield is about 5.35 tons per hectare. If 100,000 hectares are fully destroyed, the loss is approximately 5.35 lakh tons. With the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) at Rs 2,369 per quintal (Rs 23,690 per ton), this results in a direct loss of about Rs 1,267 crore.
Basmati’s average yield is 4.46 tons per hectare. If 100,000 hectares are fully submerged, 4.46 lakh tons are lost. At a market price of Rs 3,200 per quintal (Rs 3.2 lakh per ton), this amounts to a loss of around Rs 1,427 crore. Combined, fully submerged fields account for roughly Rs 2,694 crore in direct losses.
For fields not fully submerged but with reduced yield:
Parmal paddy on the remaining 3.15 million hectares with a 10 per cent yield reduction loses about 16.85 lakh tons, valued at Rs 3,990 crore.
Basmati on the remaining 581,000 hectares with a 10 per cent reduction loses about 259,000 tons, valued at approximately Rs 829 crore.
Thus, total Parmal losses amount to Rs 5,257 crore (1,267 + 3,990), and total Basmati losses are Rs 2,256 crore (1,427 + 829). Combined, the preliminary total loss for Punjab farmers this season is about Rs 7,500 crore, excluding sugarcane (approximately 100,000 hectares), maize, and some fodder crops.
Why is this disaster particularly severe? Sukhpal Singh from the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad told DTE, “Flood losses are enormous and serious, especially for those about to harvest paddy. Basmati harvesting and labour for vegetables in some districts were affected. Livestock and housing were also damaged. Unfortunately, Punjab has no crop insurance scheme of its own, nor full coverage under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, making the situation worse.”
Regarding the aid from the Centre, Barsat said, “Punjab has been left to rely on its government and people.”
Farmers reported that cultivation costs for Parmal and Basmati paddy range from Rs 22,000-30,000 per acre. The state government’s announced compensation of Rs 20,000 per acre is very low. It is also uncertain whether everyone will receive it. Only those with 100 per cent damage are expected to receive compensation, while those with less than 50 per cent losses remain doubtful.
In Phoolpur village along the Beas in Hoshiarpur district, farmer Jarnail Singh says the paddy grains have turned black. The crops are now worthless. He fears he may not be included in the compensation category since his crop was damaged by excessive rainfall.
The All India Kisan Sabha has demanded that the government provide Rs 70,000 per acre compensation for affected farmers, Rs 20 lakh for farmers who died, Rs 1 lakh per animal for livestock losses, and full wage compensation for farm labourers.
Sukhpal Singh emphasises, “When farmers are compensated for crop losses, it is also essential that farm labourers (mostly landless) are adequately compensated for lost wages. Livestock losses are particularly severe, as these high-value assets cannot be quickly replaced for small farmers or landless people. This highlights the future need for livestock insurance, even if not purchased with formal loans.”
Punjab Agriculture Director Jaswant Singh told DTE that false smut over more than 121,405.693 hectares will worsen the situation. Excessive rainfall has significantly reduced crop yields.
He added, “Only after collecting crop samples from all districts in Punjab over the next 15 days can we estimate the exact yield loss and damage.” Samples will be taken from different agro-climatic areas across all districts, but no conclusions have yet been drawn.
The scars from the 1988 flood still linger in the hearts of elderly farmers. Attar Singh from Ghonewala recalls that back then, there were oxen-based farms, farming was not as extensive, and they took two crops per year. Homes were not pucca, so economic losses were not as severe. Now, due to government failures, farming is taking place right up to the riverbanks, and machines have expanded this area. “Therefore, the 2025 flood loss must be assessed separately, considering all factors, as it is not only Kharif losses—this will be the first time we may not sow anything in the Rabi season.”