A 2026 El Niño event is developing and could disrupt rainfall, water availability and food systems globally
UNU-INWEH director Kaveh Madani warns of growing “water bankruptcy” due to over-extraction and climate stress
Extreme weather linked to El Niño can trigger droughts in South Asia and floods in parts of South America
Agricultural livelihoods and food security are at heightened risk, especially in vulnerable regions
A shift from reactive responses to long-term climate adaptation and water management need of the hour
An El Niño event is developing in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean in 2026, which could have wide-ranging impacts on water availability and food security in affected regions. Down To Earth spoke to Kaveh Madani, professor and director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), about the event’s likely strength compared with previous El Niño episodes and its potential societal impacts, particularly on water availability in regions vulnerable to El Niño-driven changes in rainfall and temperature patterns.
Akshit Sangomla (AS): What are the major short- and long-term impacts of El Niño events on society, especially concerning agriculture, livelihoods and water availability?
Kaveh Madani (KM): El Niño represents a shift in weather patterns away from their typical geography. In southern Africa and parts of South Asia, that often means severe droughts across multiple seasons that decimate staple crop yields. To survive, farmers are forced into over-reliance on groundwater, pushing aquifers into a state of “water bankruptcy”, as they are drained far faster than they can naturally replenish, causing lasting damage to ecosystems.
In western South America, El Niño can bring destructive flooding that overwhelms irrigation and urban water infrastructure, destroys livelihoods and takes lives. These opposite, extreme effects on freshwater availability severely disrupt global food systems, resulting in crippling income loss and food insecurity for millions.
AS: How well have these impacts been studied, and what remains poorly understood? How have these impacts changed over time?
KM: Temperature shifts, wind reversals and most physical aspects of El Niño are well understood. However, the knock-on, compounding socio-economic and political effects lack sufficient clarity and investigation. This includes global market impacts, human migration patterns and links to political instability.
We have seen how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz can affect people across the world, even far from the region. Similarly, the cascading effects of El Niño have become increasingly global in recent decades, affecting trade and the delicate water-energy-food nexus.
We are also increasingly operating in what we recognise as a state of global water bankruptcy — where chronic over-extraction and irreversible ecosystem damage leave communities with little buffer against sudden shocks. In this fragile context, El Niño-driven hydrological extremes act as threat multipliers, worsening underlying vulnerabilities beyond what was seen in the 20th century. Without better measurement and response, we risk a cycle of worsening water depletion and flooding.
AS: How can we better understand El Niño events in a warming world? Will background warming intensify the impacts?
KM: The 2015-2016 El Niño coincided with one of the hottest periods on record, resulting in some of the most intense impacts observed, with around 60 million people affected by disease, displacement and severe socio-economic insecurity.
As baseline global temperatures continue to rise, and without adequate adaptation measures, we should expect future El Niño events to bring even more severe impacts, both now and in the future.
AS: How can governments and vulnerable communities prepare for these impacts?
KM: In the current era of global water bankruptcy, viable solutions require a fundamental shift from reactive crisis management to proactive climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Historically, populations and governments addressed climate hardships reactively, responding with emergency relief only after disasters occur and water resources are already depleted.
Preparation requires long-term planning and adaptive strategies tailored to regional vulnerabilities. In the short to medium term, this means strengthening early warning systems, investing in water-efficient irrigation, and upgrading water and agricultural infrastructure.
On a macro level, diversifying national economies is essential. If agricultural systems fail, countries and communities that depend entirely on farming will be disproportionately affected. Governments need to provide viable economic transition options and social safety nets, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.