The communities in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region could face enhanced risks from flash floods due to bursts of extreme rainfall and cloudbursts during the southwest monsoon season along with high temperatures which could lead to accelerated glacier and snow melting, according to scientists from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
ICIMOD experts cited recent cloud burst induced flash floods in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s Gilgit-Baltistan and intense rainfall and floods in India’s Arunachal Pradesh as examples of extreme weather events that have occurred even as most parts of the region may receive less rainfall than normal during the current monsoon season, according to ICIMOD’s HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026.
Other places in the HKH region have also suffered from extreme rainfall induced flash floods and landslides such as the recent flash floods in the Kishtwar district of Jammu and Kashmir which affected the 540 MW Kwar hydroelectric power project and devastated the national highway 244 connecting Kishtwar with Doda.
“The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk,” said Saswata Sanyal, disaster risk reduction specialist, ICIMOD, in a press statement. “A drier monsoon can still be a dangerous monsoon. A seasonal rainfall average cannot capture the cloudbursts that cause catastrophic flooding in mountain valleys,” he added.
The suppression of rainfall during the monsoon season of 2026 is due to the strengthening El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean that was declared by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on June 2. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also factored in the impact of the El Niño on the seasonal monsoon rainfall and for individual months of June and July 2026.
“While El Niño is expected to suppress seasonal rainfall across much of South Asia, short-lived weather systems can temporarily override that pattern, producing intense localised rainfalls capable of causing severe flooding,” according to ICIMOD.
The resultant monsoon season of 2026 is erratic hence difficult to predict. There could be long dry spells with less rainfall that can have an impact on agricultural production and water availability interspersed with bouts of extreme rainfall and cloudbursts that could harm lives and infrastructure, especially in the HKH region.
The heightened temperatures during the season can further add to the risks. “Higher temperatures increase glacier and snowmelt, meaning even short periods of heavy rainfall can generate much larger floods in glacier-fed river basins,” said Manish Shrestha, hydrologist, ICIMOD, in the press release. The accelerated glacier and snow melting could add more water to rivers that are already swelling with intense rainfall along with destabilisation of mountain slopes and glacial lakes dammed with moraine.
“Early warning systems need to consider rainfall, glacier melt, river flow and slope stability together because these hazards increasingly occur as cascading events,” said Manish Shrestha.
“This year requires dual preparedness. Communities must prepare for prolonged dry spells while remaining ready for sudden flash floods, landslides and debris flows,” said Sanyal.
“Mountain communities have long combined scientific forecasts with local knowledge. That combination will become even more important as rainfall becomes more erratic,” said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and Disaster Risk Reduction Lead, ICIMOD. “Settlements on steep slopes and along riverbanks remain among the most exposed locations this monsoon,” she added.